A lot of recession warning these days.
Deutsche Bank examined economic data going all the way back to the 1700s and narrowed down the 4 criteria that indicate a recession is coming — and the US economy just triggered the final warning sign t.co/wMVDWUK3pf
— Insider Business (@BusinessInsider) September 24, 2023
WARNING: Bankruptcy filings have recently reached levels on par with the 2008 Great Recession and the 2020 COVID-19 pandemic.
This indicator often suggests that the economy isn't performing well, and has historically always been followed by massive stock market crashes. pic.twitter.com/DHUEm59QUS
— WhaleWire (@WhaleWire) September 24, 2023
The U.S. could be in a recession and we just don’t know it yet
MARK HULBERT
How do you know if an economy is headed into a recession? You don’t, until it’s already in one.
That’s the implication of a little-known indicator that keys off the difference between two separate measures of consumer sentiment. Fed Chair Jerome Powell didn’t make any mention of this indicator in his news conference on Wednesday, but I wouldn’t be surprised if he and other Fed officials are aware of it.
In fact, Powell appeared to at least somewhat backpedal on his previous forecasts of a so-called “soft landing,” now saying that such an outcome is “possible” —a nd that the Fed’s interest-rating setting committee does not consider a soft landing as the “baseline expectation.”
The indicator I’m referring to is constructed by subtracting the University of Michigan’s Index of Consumer Sentiment (UMICS) from the Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index (CCI). Since 1979, which is how far back monthly data extend for both indexes, recessions were imminent whenever this spread greatly widened and then began to narrow.
Recession Warnings Escalate as Principal Economic Indicator Declines Again – Loyal Conservatives t.co/ll69oaEcPE
— culrul (@culrul) September 24, 2023
He seems to know what he is talking about.
h/t Ostria1
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