Recession Is Cancelled!?

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www.reuters.com/markets/us/us-2yr10yr-yield-curve-hits-deepest-inversion-42-years-2023-07-03/

A yield curve inversion – in which shorter-dated Treasuries trade at higher yields than longer-dated securities – has been a reliable signal of upcoming recessions. The 2/10 year yield curve has inverted six to 24 months before each recession since 1955, according to a 2018 report by researchers at the San Francisco Fed, offering only one false signal in that time.

To all the people who think recession “isn’t going to happen” and “those yield curves were wrong” and “it’s different this time” it’s only been 18 months since this yield curve inverted. (July 2022)

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h/t mark000

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