Re-heating economy prevents recession; inflation raises, causing recession.

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“If the economy is re heating and we are avoiding a recession then inflation will also re heat and they will raise more and we will still end up in a recession. Yes, it is that simple.”



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“The odds of war and/or economic chaos in the next 18 months is extremely high according to Ray Dalio.”

Fed’s Favorite Inflation Signal Remains ‘Stuck’ As Wage-Growth Re-Accelerates In May

Core PCE inflation remains high at 4.6% YoY. Spending growth stalls, while wage growth re-accelerates. Real personal spending stays unchanged. The savings rate increases. The situation raises concerns of a consumer pullback and signals a potential onset of stagflation.

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American States Once Awash In Cash See Their Fortunes Suddenly Reversed

California, once flush with a record surplus, now faces a $32 billion deficit as the tech industry wanes and pandemic funding ends. The state’s reliance on wealthy residents for tax revenue, particularly from capital gains, leaves its budget vulnerable to fluctuations. In contrast, states like Florida and Texas, which rely on sales taxes, are experiencing revenue growth. The diverging fortunes between Democrat and Republican-led states highlight the ongoing divisions in the United States. While some states have built up reserves and prepared for economic downturns, others are enacting tax cuts despite a weaker fiscal environment. As the stock market rallies, state tax revenues are beginning to normalize, signaling an end to the days of booming revenues.

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