Powell’s conservative approach means a predictable 25 basis points, despite media hype around 50 points.

Chances of 50 bps rate cut increase to 47%

Bets on the size of the Fed’s cut have been volatile and were roughly even by late Friday. Expectations for a 50 basis point cut jumped to 49% from 28% on Thursday, according to CME’s FedWatch Tool, which showed a 51% probability for a 25 basis point cut.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/futures-muted-uncertainty-fed-rate-101133976.html

It’s important to understand that Powell is conservative and steady—he’s not one for surprises. A 25-basis-point hike is almost certain. Don’t get caught up in media predictions of a 50-point hike; they’re often trying to generate hype. The data strongly points to 25 basis points, and Powell relies heavily on the data to guide his decisions.

h/t wcheng3000