Polymarket puts the odds of a US-Iran nuclear deal at 50%.

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The odds are even. Not in theory. In the market. Polymarket, the decentralized prediction platform, has priced a 50% chance that the United States and Iran will reach a new nuclear agreement by August. That’s not a forecast. That’s a reflection. A real-time pulse of what traders, analysts, and geopolitical gamblers think is possible.

The market didn’t start at 50. It climbed. Earlier this month, the probability hovered around 40%. Then came the escalation. Israeli strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities. Iranian missile salvos on Israeli cities. U.S. destroyers moved into the Mediterranean. The tension pushed the odds higher. But not over the line. The market stalled at 50%. That’s the definition of uncertainty.


Sources:

https://polymarket.com/event/us-iran-nuclear-deal-before-august

https://predictionnews.com/news/prediction-markets-suggest-possible-us-engagement-iran-israel/

https://decrypt.co/325506/polymarket-bets-on-us-strike-against-iran-spike-then-fall