The money is moving. Not in silence. Not in shadows. It’s flashing in the open. Polymarket odds now show a 67% chance that the United States will launch military action against Iran before July. That number was under 30% just days ago. It didn’t climb. It jumped.
Traders are betting real money on real outcomes. And they’re betting that war is no longer a question. It’s a clock.
The Pentagon has already cleared nonessential staff from embassies in Iraq, Kuwait, and Bahrain. The USS Nimitz is moving into position. Tankers are airborne. Destroyers are stacking in the eastern Mediterranean. The posture is not defensive. It’s forward.
Trump is not hiding behind statements. He told reporters Iran had its chance. He said they’re “basically at the table” but warned that once he leaves the G7, something will happen. That’s not a bluff. That’s a fuse.
China has now told its citizens to leave Israel immediately. That’s not a travel advisory. That’s a red flag. Beijing sees what’s coming. They’re not waiting for confirmation. They’re pulling out.
The G7 summit ended without a joint statement on Iran. Trump refused to sign it. He left early. He said Iran is “not winning this war” and that “we’re on our way.” The other leaders called for calm. Trump called for evacuation.
Polymarket traders are watching every move. The odds reflect more than sentiment. They reflect surveillance. Flight paths. Carrier positions. Embassy orders. Every shift in posture gets priced in. And right now, the price says war.
Sources:
https://polymarket.com/event/us-military-action-against-iran-before-july