This will affect nfp in a negative way
— noname (@IconicSeriess) October 3, 2024
This discrepancy between seasonally adjusted and non-seasonally adjusted payroll figures could affect the Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report. The seasonal adjustment, which is standard in employment data to account for predictable fluctuations, significantly boosted the September print. However, the non-seasonally adjusted decline of 260,000 jobs—the worst on record for September—raises concerns about underlying weaknesses in the job market.
The NFP report, which typically reflects seasonally adjusted data, might still show job growth. But this sharp decline in non-adjusted figures suggests that the labor market may be weaker than it appears, creating potential volatility when the NFP is released. This discrepancy could also spark debates about the accuracy and reliability of seasonal adjustments.
Investors, analysts, and policymakers may interpret this as a sign of a slowing economy, which could influence market sentiment, monetary policy, and future job reports.
History tells us that something is bound to break
More inversion days = deeper drawdown
Recent inversion hit +700 days
This only occurred once → 1929 pic.twitter.com/tTarQSBv21
— Bravos Research (@bravosresearch) October 2, 2024