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Credit-card, auto-loan ‘stress’ rises as U.S. consumers fall behind on payments

Consumers are showing some signs of stress even as the unemployment rate — at least for now — remains historically low, according to Renaissance Macro Research.

“Credit quality is worsening,” said Neil Dutta, head of economics at RenMac in a note Wednesday. He pointed to a modest deterioration in credit quality for credit cards and auto loans, citing the Federal Bank of New York’s most recent household debt and credit report.

The portion of auto-loan balances that are “seriously delinquent,” meaning payments are late by at least 90 days, jumped to 2.53%, said Dutta. That’s the highest since the third quarter of 2010, he said, while “seriously delinquent” credit-card balances increased to 5.78%.
As more consumers struggle to keep up with payments on credit cards and auto loans, these two areas of consumer debt are seeing more “stress” than mortgages, the RenMac chart below shows. The yellow line tracks the jump in seriously delinquent credit-card balances, while the gray line represents the rising portion of such late auto-loan payments.

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