2/ Picture this: The US economy is a race car, and GDP is the speedometer
In calm times, the needle stays steady, hovering above 2%
And when it dips, we're entering a period of economic weakness
— Game of Trades (@GameofTrades_) July 5, 2024
4/ During recessions, GDP declines to around 0 or below
Indicating full-blown economic contractions pic.twitter.com/KhZESavydW
— Game of Trades (@GameofTrades_) July 5, 2024
6/ This, alongisde many other economic indicators, is something we’re closely monitoring at Game of Trades
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— Game of Trades (@GameofTrades_) July 5, 2024
8/ ISM New Orders index also signals recoveries
Jumping before the GDP recovers pic.twitter.com/rJhWHaEtE2
— Game of Trades (@GameofTrades_) July 5, 2024
It would be an interesting dynamic if US unemployment rate went up just before elections.
Ht @MikaelSarwe pic.twitter.com/D0GSGMnQSm
— Michael A. Arouet (@MichaelAArouet) July 6, 2024
Home prices in Manhattan have dropped by 22% from their peak in mid-2022.
And could have further to fall.
There's now 10 months of supply on the Manhattan condo/co-op market. Suggesting more price drops coming.
Interestingly – values in Manhattan are the most affordable they… pic.twitter.com/hJx3eFZohc
— Nick Gerli (@nickgerli1) July 5, 2024
This week, economic surprises have plunged to nearly decade-low levels, while last week, inflation expectations surged to their highest in over three decades.
This spells stagflation loud and clear.
The Fed’s dual mandate of managing inflation and labor market stability is… pic.twitter.com/4k0mojFfrJ— Otavio (Tavi) Costa (@TaviCosta) July 5, 2024