People’s fears of losing their job are at the highest point in a New York Fed survey’s 10-year history, even as the unemployment rate remains low.
A new labor market survey shows Americans have rarely felt more in need of new job opportunities — an indication of a more negative outlook about the economy despite other data that suggests a more stable picture.
The New York Federal Reserve’s latest poll of consumers found 28.4% of respondents were looking for a job — the highest reading since March 2014 and up from 19.4% a year ago. That includes both individuals already out of a job and ones currently employed but seeking new roles.
The readings, from the New York Fed’s thrice-annual Survey of Consumer Expectations Labor Market Survey, add to evidence that the U.S. economic outlook is worsening, even as some economists dial back their odds of a recession. While the unemployment rate remains relatively low at 4.3%, it is up from its post-pandemic low of 3.5%.
After a period of booming post-pandemic growth — tempered by surging inflation — signs continue to mount that the U.S. economy is entering a significantly softer period.
“The vibes have gotten worse,” said Guy Berger, director of economic research at the Burning Glass Institute, a labor research group.
https://www.nbcnews.com/business/rcna167368
Fed survey shows lows in employment, worries about finding work and dissatisfaction with pay
- A New York Fed survey released Monday showed that of those who were employed at the time of the last survey in March, 88% still had jobs, the lowest in data going back to 2014.
- Those who expected to become unemployed rose to 4.4%, a 0.5 percentage point increase from a year ago and the highest in the survey’s history.
Fed Confronts Up to a Million US Jobs Vanishing in Revision
(Bloomberg) — US job growth in the year through March was likely far less robust than initially estimated, which risks fueling concerns that the Federal Reserve is falling further behind the curve to lower interest rates.
Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and Wells Fargo & Co. economists expect the government’s preliminary benchmark revisions on Wednesday to show payrolls growth in the year through March was at least 600,000 weaker than currently estimated — about 50,000 a month.
While JPMorgan Chase & Co. forecasters see a decline of about 360,000, Goldman Sachs indicates it could be as large as a million.
There are a number of caveats in the preliminary figure, but a downward revision to employment of more than 501,000 would be the largest in 15 years and suggest the labor market has been cooling for longer — and perhaps more so — than originally thought. The final numbers are due early next year.