Something feels off at OpenAI. For a long time, people talked about it like it was untouchable, the company that would rewrite everything we know. That kind of talk is always loudest right before the trouble begins. The excitement is gone now. The numbers look worse each time someone opens the books. You can almost hear the money bleeding out.
Just a few weeks ago, we wrote about how OpenAI became the $500 billion hub of the AI ecosystem, the company at the center of everything, and potentially the industry’s single point of failure. Now, fresh filings from Microsoft have revealed just how deep the financial hole runs. OpenAI reportedly lost $11.5 billion last quarter.
https://techstartups.com/2025/10/31/openai-is-hemorrhaging-billions-microsoft-filing-reveals-openai-lost-11-5-billion-last-quarter-amid-ai-bubble-hype/
$11.5 billion gone in 3 months. That isn’t a stumble. That’s collapse territory. Microsoft confirmed it in its SEC filing. The number isn’t speculation, it’s official. When a company loses money like that, it’s not a glitch in the system. It’s the system itself breaking apart.
People close to the company still use the word “growth.” They always do. But growth that burns this much cash isn’t real growth. It’s a countdown.
Now that OpenAI can be a for-profit company, it can have an initial public offering. Reuters reports that the target market cap from the transaction is a $1 trillion valuation, which it will use to raise $60 billion. The IPO could be as early as the second half of 2026, or it may be delayed a quarter or two to 2027, depending on the overall stock market. At $1 trillion, it would be worth as much as Berkshire Hathaway.
If anyone needs proof that the AI-driven stock market is frothy, it is this $1 trillion figure. In the first half of the year, OpenAI lost $13.5 billion, on revenue of $4.3 billion. It is on track to lose $27 billion for the year. One estimate shows OpenAI will burn $115 billion by 2029. It may not make money until that year.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/openai-1-trillion-ipo-141519224.html
A $1 trillion IPO for a company drowning in red ink. That isn’t vision. That’s mania. In the first six months of this year, OpenAI lost $13.5 billion while making $4.3 billion. If the estimates are right, it will lose $27 billion by the end of the year and burn $115 billion by 2029. No business can survive that kind of arithmetic.
It feels just like the last time. In 2000, people said the same thing — that the future would fix the numbers. It didn’t. The math won.
OpenAI plans to spend about $100 billion renting backup servers from cloud providers over the next five years, the Information reported on Friday, citing company executives’ discussions with shareholders. This expenditure is in addition to the $350 billion the artificial intelligence firm has already projected to spend on server rentals from cloud providers this year through 2030, the report said.
https://www.reuters.com/business/openai-spend-100-billion-over-five-years-backup-servers-information-reports-2025-09-19/
OpenAI is spending nearly half a trillion dollars on rented servers that may never pay for themselves, and if the $1 trillion IPO happens, the insiders will cash out before the wreckage hits the ground. The company’s product works, but the numbers don’t, and the people at the top know it.