Trump Leads in Arizona as Harris Holds an Edge in Pennsylvania, New Polls Show
The latest Times/Inquirer/Siena polls found Donald Trump with a six-point advantage in Arizona, and Kamala Harris with a four-point lead in Pennsylvania.
Two of the nation’s most-contested battleground states — Pennsylvania and Arizona — illustrate the difficulties each campaign faces in gaining a clear advantage in the final stretch of the 2024 race, with Kamala Harris maintaining a narrow lead in Pennsylvania but Donald J. Trump continuing to hold an advantage in Arizona, according to a new pair of New York Times/Philadelphia Inquirer/Siena College polls.
The polls, from two states separated by more than 2,000 miles, show the challenge confronting both campaigns as they try to make their closing pitches to a diverse set of voters who have, at times, competing priorities.
In both Arizona and Pennsylvania, Ms. Harris has consolidated support among Democrats since replacing President Biden as the party’s nominee. But Mr. Trump’s strength remains the economy, the issue primarily responsible for his political potency across Arizona and other battleground states this year.
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A Mystery Repeats: Harris Up 4 in Pennsylvania, and Trump Up 6 in Arizona
Being uncertain about our earlier poll results but finding almost the same numbers the next time around.
At the end of our last wave of post-debate battleground polls, there were two state poll results that didn’t seem to fit the rest.
One was Pennsylvania: Kamala Harris led by four percentage points, making it her best result in the battlegrounds. It was our only state poll conducted immediately after the debate, when her supporters might have been especially excited to respond to a poll.
The other was Arizona: Donald J. Trump led by five points, making it his best result among the battlegrounds. Even stranger, it was a huge swing from our previous poll of the state, which Vice President Harris had led by five points.
In both cases, it seemed possible that another New York Times/Philadelphia Inquirer/Siena College poll would yield a significantly different result. With that in mind, we decided to take an additional measure of Arizona and Pennsylvania before our final polls at the end of the month.
The result? Essentially the same as our prior polls.
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