NY FED recession probability is on highs. Unemployment is going up. Similar pattern was right before most previous recessions.

by ChampionshipUsed9855

The probability of a recession in the next 12 months is 56.2%. This means that there is a more than 50% chance that the economy will contract in the next year. The odds are highest in over 10 years, and this has been driven by concerns about trade policy and weakening global growth.