Credit spreads hit alarming lows, echoing past bubbles. The 12-month forward rate signals an 84% recession chance—seemingly unavoidable.
Credit spreads are now at their lowest levels since both market peaks in 2021 and during the housing bubble.
I'm having a hard time justifying the level of complacency in markets today. pic.twitter.com/BArQ0inLig
— Otavio (Tavi) Costa (@TaviCosta) October 15, 2024
We are currently at a stage where many macro assets seem overextended and are likely to reverse their trends, in my view.
The US dollar and 2-year yields are prime examples of this.
Just as short-term rates experienced a steep decline from May to September, they have now surged… pic.twitter.com/JHi86H42Bd
— Otavio (Tavi) Costa (@TaviCosta) October 14, 2024
🇺🇸 Recession
The 12-month forward implied change in the federal funds rate indicates an 84% probability of a US recession occurring within the next year. Is this time different?
👉 t.co/m11iBkSWhch/t @GoldmanSachs $spx #spx pic.twitter.com/aJIlNc2fBV
— ISABELNET (@ISABELNET_SA) October 15, 2024
Change in 5yr inflation swaps via @MenthorQpro and $DB pic.twitter.com/iNaEVl4WiD
— Special Situations 🌐 Research Newsletter (Jay) (@SpecialSitsNews) October 15, 2024
Breaking:
Empire State Manufacturing
-11.9 vs +3.0 estimate
Biggest miss since May
— QE Infinity (@StealthQE4) October 15, 2024
WARNING: The economy is in the “Hot Zone” for a recession
Buckle up pic.twitter.com/65JUTeeusN
— Bravos Research (@bravosresearch) October 15, 2024
7 in 10 women now invest in the stock market outside their employer-provided retirement accounts, according to a new report from Fidelity Investments.
— unusual_whales (@unusual_whales) October 15, 2024
What if the BOJ sucks liquidity from the rest of the globe (bond buying tapers off)?
PS: See what happened from July-October 2022 and how did risk assets performed pic.twitter.com/8OSogReTdZ
— The Macro Guy (@SagarSinghSetia) October 15, 2024
"Strategists are predicting that companies in the S&P 500 Index will post their weakest results in the past four quarters, with just a 4.3% increase in third-quarter profits compared with a year ago."@JessicaMenton @sagarikareports pic.twitter.com/BeiYntTYXi
— Daily Chartbook (@dailychartbook) October 15, 2024
Jerome Powell is Arthur Burns with Volcker aspirations
"He Fed kept buying MBS long after the mortgage market recovered, and kept rates at zero for a full year after inflation took off.
This was a major policy error."t.co/cPWxssykVV
— Darth Powell (@VladTheInflator) October 15, 2024
September credit delinquency expectations rose to their highest level since April 2020, per the NY Fed#MacroEdge
— MacroEdge (@MacroEdgeRes) October 15, 2024
Small-cap companies are struggling:
The share of unprofitable Russell 2000 companies is now at 43%, the most since the 2020 pandemic.
This even exceeds the 41% seen at the end of the 2008 Financial Crisis.
Adding to concerns, interest expense as a % of total debt of Russell… pic.twitter.com/HmaZPsd7bl
— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) October 15, 2024
Unpopular opinion:
We would currently be in a recession if it wasn’t for the insane government spending we are seeing right now.
— QE Infinity (@StealthQE4) October 15, 2024
Explain this to me like a kindergartener.
How does ZIRP fix this?
(making it easy by using extreme example)@apolloglobal pic.twitter.com/IWDbpag0TD
— Danielle DiMartino Booth (@DiMartinoBooth) October 15, 2024