Noose Tightens on Consumer Credit, Auto Loan Rejections Hit Record High

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The more you think you really need a loan, the less likely you are to get one, especially auto loans.

Data from New York Fed Survey of Consumers, chart by Mish

New York Fed Credit Access Survey report comes out every for months. The June report shows significant tightening of credit standards by lenders and less demand for loans by consumers.

June SCE Credit Access Survey Key Findings

  • The application rate for any kind of credit over the past twelve months declined to 40.3 percent from 40.9 percent in February, its lowest reading since October 2020. Application rates declined to 11.9 percent for auto loans and 12.5 percent for credit card limit requests, but increased to 24.8 percent for credit cards, 6.5 percent for mortgages, and 5.3 percent for mortgage refinances.
  • The overall rejection rate for credit applicants increased to 21.8 percent, the highest level since June 2018. The increase was broad-based across age groups and highest among those with credit scores below 680.
  • The rejection rate for auto loans increased to 14.2 percent from 9.1 percent in February, a new series high. It increased for credit cards, credit card limit increase requests, mortgages, and mortgage refinance applications to 21.5 percent, 30.7 percent, 13.2 percent, and 20.8 percent, respectively.
  • The proportion of respondents reporting that they are likely to apply for one or more types of credit over the next twelve months rose to 26.4 percent from 26.1 percent in February.
  • The average reported probability that a loan application will be rejected increased sharply for all loan types. It rose to 30.7 percent for auto loans, 32.8 percent for credit cards, 42.4 percent for credit limit increase requests, 46.1 percent for mortgages, and 29.6 percent for mortgage refinance applications. The readings for auto loans, mortgages, and credit card limit increase requests are all new series highs.

 

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