by DesmondMilesDant
What is going on here at the Non-Farm payrolls report?
Let me confuse you from something in 2008.
According to the most recent jobs report, nonfarm payrolls increased by 339 thousand in January. This is good news for the economy, as it indicates that more people are finding work. However, there was a decrease in household employment of 310 thousand during the same period. This suggests that some families may be struggling financially despite the overall improvement in job prospects.
While the Establishment survey was a blowout beat and the strongest print since January, the Household survey unexpectedly tumbled by the most since April 22 as it plunged by 310K jobs.
One possible reason for the massive divergence: the birth death model “added” 231K jobs in March. These are not actual jobs, but merely an assumption by the BLS as to how many new businesses were created and hired workers based on statistical assumptions. Again, these are not actual jobs. [Emphasis added]
The less volatile (and manipulated) participation rate came in as expected at 62.6%, unchanged from last month.
And another paradox: despite the blowout payrolls number, in May both full-time and part-time workers dropped, by 220K and 23K, respectively.
Never believe the headline numbers.
Plus this warning from CNBC:
CNBC: "The increase in the unemployment rate is MUCH worse than expected … usually when we rise by a half a point from the lowest unemployment rate, it means the economy is going into recession. We just rose three-tenths in a month." pic.twitter.com/KZvrR93qRG
— RNC Research (@RNCResearch) June 2, 2023