What have we learned from the market this Fall?
There are 2 paths forward for Real Estate and both are painful:
1. Higher rates, stagnant market, layoffs, prices grind flat or down
2. Lower rates that come when the economy collapses, not because the Fed waves a magic wand
— Amy Nixon (@texasrunnerDFW) December 20, 2024
I bought bonds.
Housing can not handle a 4.6% 10 year. No chance. Other stuff is breaking too.
FX moving way too much. Going to start hitting earnings and that will affect hiring. Not a sustainable equilibrium.
First time I’ve owned bonds in 7 years pic.twitter.com/tJSUWCG6UZ
— Rev Cap (@rev_cap) December 20, 2024
Home builder lenar just said road ahead will be choppy
— Darth Powell (@VladTheInflator) December 20, 2024
WARNING: Home prices are contracting sharply
These levels were only seen 4 times since 1964:
– 1970
– 1990
– 2008
– 2020All 4 ended in sharp economic downturns pic.twitter.com/8WIN8raQGr
— Bravos Research (@bravosresearch) December 20, 2024
Tell me again!
How do you conclude "Soft Landing" based on this….?
Please 😉 pic.twitter.com/nnM2vwYcUH
— Henrik Zeberg (@HenrikZeberg) December 20, 2024