New home sales have been stuck under 700k for two years—down over 30% from pandemic highs. Builders have barely held the line with buydowns and incentives, but the real alarm is in mortgage delinquencies. First-time buyers and veterans are falling behind on payments, and serious delinquencies have hit a two-year high. FHA loan defaults spiked 74 basis points in 2024 alone. This isn’t just a dip—it’s the early tremors of something much worse.
So what's happening today?
New home sales peaked more than two years ago and declined more than 30% from the pandemic high.
— Eric Basmajian (@EPBResearch) February 6, 2025
Homebuilders have been able to keep sales flat in this relatively muted but workable 600k-700k pace through the use of buydowns and incentives.
— Eric Basmajian (@EPBResearch) February 6, 2025
‼️US economy policy uncertainty is SPIKING:
This means economic environment will be challenging to predict and may impact investments and spending, as well as trigger more volatility in the markets.
The index is only below the 2018 levels when the previous trade war took place. pic.twitter.com/JkpDfkCove
— Global Markets Investor (@GlobalMktObserv) February 6, 2025
Homeowners — particularly first-time buyers — are worryingly late on their mortgage payments
Rising mortgage delinquencies among homeowners could be the ‘canary in the coal mine,’ expert says
A rising number of homeowners, particularly first-time home buyers and military members and veterans, are missing their monthly payments — and one group says it could be the “canary in the coal mine.”
In 2024, the share of serious delinquencies — which refers to mortgage loans that are over 90 days past due but are not in active foreclosure — rose to the highest level in nearly two years, according to a monthly report by Intercontinental Exchange, or ICE.
Delinquencies on Federal Housing Administration loans, typically used by first-time home buyers, rose 74 basis points in 2024. A basis point is one-hundredth of a percentage point.