Tropical Storm Idalia Discussion Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102023
400 AM CDT Mon Aug 28 2023
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT5%20shtml/280859.shtml
Over the Gulf of Mexico, the environment is forecast to become
conducive for significant strengthening of Idalia due to a new
trough dropping south over the western Gulf of Mexico as a
upper-level ridge builds near the cyclone. Additionally, Idalia
will be moving over waters near 31C, and some of the guidance is
even indicating favorable jet dynamics on Wednesday with Idalia in
the right-rear quadrant of the jet over the southeastern United
States. The bottom line is that rapid intensification is becoming
increasingly likely before landfall, and the NHC forecast now
explicitly indicates it between 24-48 h in the forecast. This is
consistent with almost all of the regional hurricane models and the
SHIPS rapid intensification indices, which are 5-10 times the
climatological mean. The new prediction shows a 100-kt hurricane
over the eastern Gulf of Mexico at 48 hours, but Idalia should keep
strengthening up to landfall along the Gulf coast of Florida.
Interests within the storm surge and hurricane watch areas are urged
to prepare for possible significant impacts and monitor future
updates to the forecast for this increasingly dangerous situation.
Getting ready to head into #Idalia on NOAA43! Looks like another attempt at eyewall formation is happening right now. Curious what this storm looks like when we're out there. Be safe and prepared everyone! pic.twitter.com/BjQTTThQwi
— Andy Hazelton (@AndyHazelton) August 28, 2023
Based on the 5PM Sunday NHC forecast advisory, here is the prep timeline for Idalia.
Because the storm is expected to accelerate in the eastern Gulf, the times of arrival have moved up a bit for Tampa Bay.
Plan to have outdoor activities/preps wrapped up by the time tropical… pic.twitter.com/6g7qTh2PVF— Craig Setzer, CCM (@CraigSetzer) August 27, 2023
Here are your Monday am Key Messages for Tropical Storm Idalia. The system is forecast to become a dangerous major hurricane over the NE Gulf of Mexico by early Wednesday. Hurricane warnings could be issued for portions of Florida later today. More: https://t.co/tW4KeGe9uJ pic.twitter.com/Xi0lTsrcZL
— National Hurricane Center (@NHC_Atlantic) August 28, 2023
h/t DOORBERT