$MSTR: A $110B bubble on $500M earnings. History warns: Bubbles always burst.

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MicroStrategy (MSTR) is facing scrutiny as its market cap soars to nearly $110 billion, backed by annual earnings of only $500 million. This massive valuation disparity has sparked concerns that the stock may be heading toward an inevitable collapse, reminiscent of its crash during the 2000 dot-com bubble.

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The warning signs are undeniable. Despite a five-fold surge in 2024, driven largely by investor enthusiasm for Bitcoin, analysts argue the stock is “completely detached from Bitcoin fundamentals.” Such rapid and unsustainable growth raises red flags about the company’s stability and long-term outlook.

A key factor fueling MicroStrategy’s rise is its use of convertible bonds to finance massive Bitcoin purchases. These bonds offer no regular interest payments but allow conversion into equity, making the company’s future tightly linked to Bitcoin’s volatile market. This strategy has drawn criticism as overly risky and speculative.

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Even more troubling is the Michael Saylor-Warren Buffett ratio, which measures MicroStrategy’s performance against Berkshire Hathaway’s. This ratio has reached levels not seen since the dot-com era, a period infamous for its speculative excess and subsequent crashes.

With its fundamentals severely out of sync, MicroStrategy’s current trajectory seems dangerously unsustainable. History has shown that bubbles burst—and MicroStrategy could be heading toward a hard landing.

Sources:
www.marketwatch.com/story/microstrategys-market-cap-nears-110-billion-despite-low-earnings-2024-11-20

www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-11-18/saylor-buffett-ratio-signals-bubble-microstrategy-s-stock

www.wsj.com/articles/microstrategys-stock-surges-five-fold-in-2024-raises-bubble-fears-2024-11-15

www.reuters.com/markets/us/microstrategys-convertible-bonds-2024-11-12

www.cnbc.com/2024/11/10/analysts-call-microstrategy-bubble-2024


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