It appears that the outcome of this election is likely to completely shock a lot of the experts. I have spent quite a bit of time today going through the numbers on the University of Florida’s early voting tracker, and I have noticed some very intriguing trends. First of all, turnout is off the charts. In 2020, 49 million Americans voted prior to Election Day. So far in 2024, a whopping 24,981,629 Americans have already voted, and we still have almost two weeks to go until we reach November 5th. There is so much energy on both sides, and both sides fully expect to win. Once it is all over, the losing side is going to experience a flood of negative emotion.
Before I begin, I want to mention a few things. Not all states offer early voting, and the states that do offer early voting differ as to what types of data they make available. So the numbers that we have right now do not give us a full picture of what is going on.
Also, just because a voter identifies with a particular party, that does not mean that voter will vote a particular way.
Some Democrats could be voting for Donald Trump, and some Republicans could be voting for Kamala Harris.
But without a doubt, the numbers that we are getting at this stage do tell us a very interesting story.
In previous elections, Democrats have voted early at a much higher rate than Republicans have.
In 2024, that continues to be true…
Democrat 5,355,274 42.8 %
Republican 4,327,744 34.6 %
None/Minor 2,839,445 22.7 %
But the big story is that Republicans have really narrowed the gap compared to the last presidential election.
Currently there is only an 8.2 percent gap between Democrats and Republicans, but in 2020 there was a 14.3 percent gap…
Democrats 22,250,979 44.8
Republicans 15,168,587 30.5
Minor 337,192 0.7
No Party Affiliation 11,912,722 24.0
The Trump campaign has really been encouraging people to go out and vote early, and it appears that it is working.
Another gap that we will want to watch closely is the gap between men and women.
So far, women are voting early at a much higher rate than men are…
Female 4,000,732 54.3 %
Male 3,250,623 44.1 %
Unknown 121,723 1.7 %
This is potentially a promising sign for Harris, because she has far more support among women than she does among men.
But when we start looking at specific swing states, there is a ton of bad news for the Harris campaign.
For example, Republicans have cast almost 12,000 more votes than Democrats have in Nevada so far…
Democrat 119,798 36.0 %
Republican 131,516 39.5 %
None/Minor 81,354 24.5 %
As I noted yesterday, the Harris campaign is absolutely counting on Nevada, and so these numbers should be very troubling for them.
In Arizona, Republicans have built up an even bigger lead…
Democrat 250,467 36.3 %
Republican 288,726 41.9 %
None/Minor 150,157 21.8 %
If Harris wants to have any hope of winning Arizona, she has got to turn those numbers around.
Colorado also gives us data on party identification, and the numbers from that state are absolutely stunning…
Democrat 196,014 31.6 %
Republican 173,231 28.0 %
None/Minor 250,158 40.4 %
Nobody expects Colorado to be competitive.
But Republicans are running very close to Democrats in the early voting numbers so far.
If Colorado were to slip away, that would be catastrophic for the Harris campaign.
One of the most closely watched swing states is North Carolina. Normally, Democrats would have a very large early voting lead at this stage, but instead it is a very close race…
Democrat 588,925 34.5 %
Republican 578,428 33.9 %
None/Minor 538,333 31.6 %
In order for Harris to win North Carolina, she needs African-American voters to show up in huge numbers.
Unfortunately for Harris, at this point African-American turnout is way down all over the state…
The most striking impact is among Black voters. So far, there are more than 67,000 fewer African American voters than there were in 2020 at this point in the in-person voting period. That’s a huge deficit that Democrats should be scrambling to address. They need to be shifting money and people to connect with Black voters and get them to the polls.
The problem is widespread. In Durham County, there are 4,500 fewer Black voter this year than four ago. In Mecklenburg, the number is 5,000. In Wake, it’s a little more than 3,000. In Cumberland, the Black vote is down by 5,000. In Guilford, the number is more than 8,500.
The problem is apparent in rural counties, too. In Wilson County, there are more than 1,000 fewer Black voters so far than the same period in 2020. In Halifax County, Black vote is also down more than 1,000. Same in Nash County.
More than 20 percent of her African-American voters are missing.
They could potentially vote later in the process, but there is no guarantee that will happen.
In addition, survey after survey has shown that Trump is getting far more support among African-Americans than he did in 2020.
Many Democrats are extremely concerned about the state of the race, because Trump clearly has the momentum at this point. The following comes from the Wall Street Journal…
Kamala Harris calls herself the underdog against Donald Trump. Making that argument is an old ploy to motivate voters, but with two weeks until Election Day the vice president’s top advisers and allies are worrying it might be true.
Harris’s struggle to nail down support from key voting blocs in the Democratic coalition has left her team unsettled, according to interviews with aides and advisers. She enjoys strong support with women, but she has a clear problem with men, including both Black men and white working-class men. She also has failed to shore up support among Michigan’s Arab-Americans, who have been frustrated with the Biden administration’s handling of the widening conflict in the Middle East.
It is likely that we could witness a scenario on the night of the election where the map looks really good for Trump, and if that is the case Trump may declare victory before the night is over.
Of course Harris insists that she is ready to fight back if Trump tries to do that…
Vice President Kamala Harris, her campaign team and some of Donald Trump’s own allies say they expect the former president to quickly declare victory on election night — even if the outcome is not yet settled in key swing states.
Between the time it takes to process mail ballots and deal with provisional ballots in some battleground states, votes will not be fully tabulated on election night. Projections of who won a close presidential race might not come for days, similar to the 2020 election.
It is hard to imagine a concession speech by Harris on the night of the election no matter how bad things look for her campaign.
Even if she is losing badly, her campaign will probably insist that it is just a “red mirage” and that things will turn in her favor once all of the early votes and absentee ballots are counted.
Ultimately, the outcome of the election could end up in the courts and drag out for weeks even if it is obvious that Trump has won.
And if Trump does eventually emerge victorious, it will likely result in widespread chaos in our streets.
Have you noticed that they have been calling Trump a “fascist” over and over again this week?
The stage is being set for massive civil unrest, and that is extremely unfortunate.
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