Middle-class families now afford a smaller share of homes than pre-pandemic. 82% of Americans say it’s a bad time to buy a house.

Sharing is Caring!

"This housing crisis has shattered the American Dream for middle income families,” says Sarah Dickerson of University of North Carolina.

“Middle-class households can afford a much smaller share of available homes on the market than they could have prior to the pandemic.”

— unusual_whales (@unusual_whales) November 26, 2024

1) What's amazing about these sentiment readings is that they are even worse than the early 1980s. When mortgage rates were 18%.

Back then, it was a peak of 79% who said bad time to buy.

We reached a peak of 88% in this cycle. And are currently at 82%.

— Nick Gerli (@nickgerli1) November 25, 2024

3) You can see that there is very strong historical correlation between mortgage affordability and buyer sentiment.

In fact, these two lines track almost 1-for-1 going back 50 years.

When mortgage costs spike relative to income, negative homebuyer sentiment spikes. When… pic.twitter.com/eZs7mec0ei

— Nick Gerli (@nickgerli1) November 25, 2024

5) People don't really care about marginal swings in mortgage rates.

They also don't really care that their income has grown the last 5 years.

They are still stuck on the fact that a house that looks like it should be $400k is priced at $600k. And they can't get over it.

— Nick Gerli (@nickgerli1) November 25, 2024

7) And so there is a massive standoff occurring right now between buyers and sellers.

Buyers are out. And have been out the last 18 months.

But sellers don't care. They are still pricing their houses very high. Leading to the worst market for transactions in decades.

— Nick Gerli (@nickgerli1) November 25, 2024

9) Access metro and ZIP-code specific inventory data for your housing market on Reventure App right now.

We have inventory data available for free for most ZIP codes in America. Both current levels and historical levels, so you can get a better sense of the trends in your area.…

— Nick Gerli (@nickgerli1) November 25, 2024