Markets are at record highs, yet consumer sentiment screams recession. Major warning, anyone?

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Consumer sentiment in the U.S. remains dangerously low, hovering near levels last seen during the 2008 financial meltdown. The University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index, a critical gauge of economic confidence since the 1950s, has signaled significant distress. While it reached 73.0 in November 2024—the highest since April—it still lags far behind pre-pandemic norms.

Low consumer sentiment is a historical recession signal. Similar patterns preceded economic downturns in 2008 and prior recessions. This persistent unease reflects Americans’ lack of confidence in future economic stability.

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The decline began in 2020 and has spanned the entirety of the Biden Administration, despite markets nearing record highs. Economists caution that this disconnect between market performance and consumer attitudes is a red flag.

The University of Michigan’s data underscores a stark warning. Historically, plunging consumer sentiment forecasts economic storms ahead, making these levels impossible to ignore.

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