Recent market indicators are flashing ominous signals, suggesting an impending collapse that demands attention. The rapid decline of the 10-year yield from 5% to 3.7% in just two months is more than a mere adjustment; it serves as a warning of slower growth. The bond market’s unusual behavior further intensifies concerns, indicating that significant challenges may be on the horizon. This isn’t solely about rate cuts; it reflects a broader sentiment of economic slowdown.
Adding to the apprehension is the record overbought streak in stocks, dating back to 1970—the longest in the data’s history. Investors face heightened unease as historical patterns are shattered, bringing into question the sustainability of the current market momentum. Alarming debt statistics among those aged 35 to 44, with a median debt of about $140,400, contribute to the growing sense of financial vulnerability.
The negative Real GDI, a scenario observed only before the Global Financial Crisis, deepens worries about the economic landscape. Real GDI has only been negative once without the U.S. being in a recession, and that was just before the GFC. The recurrence of this scenario raises red flags about the current state of the economy.
In an unprecedented development, the U.S. M2 Money Supply has experienced 12 consecutive months of decline on a year-over-year basis—the first time in the nation’s history since the Great Depression. This stark statistic adds weight to the prevailing concerns, signaling potential economic distress that could lead to a collapse.
As these multifaceted indicators align, the market seems increasingly vulnerable, with the specter of a collapse looming on the horizon.
Yields are telling you a market collapse is coming
Gold is telling you they will print to resolve
Housing is telling you that morons don't understand the first two until its too late
— Darth Powell 🦈🇺🇲🇺🇦🇵🇱🇫🇮 (@GRomePow) December 27, 2023
— Darth Powell 🦈🇺🇲🇺🇦🇵🇱🇫🇮 (@GRomePow) December 27, 2023
If you think it’s bullish that the 10 year yield has fallen from 5% down to 3.7% in just two months then you’re mistaken.
The bond market wouldn’t be doing this unless they saw something coming.
This isn’t about rate cuts.
It’s about slower growth
— QE Infinity (@StealthQE4) December 27, 2023
Global Bonds close to record 2 month gain 👇 pic.twitter.com/cW8ZXiq2aK
— Win Smart, CFA (@WinfieldSmart) December 28, 2023
This overbought streak at one year high is now a record going back to 1970, life of data.
Thank you Santa Pause. pic.twitter.com/U3z95erXK8
— Mac10 (@SuburbanDrone) December 28, 2023
Those between the ages 35 to 44 are carrying a median debt of about $140,400 — the highest median debt of any age cohort, per BI: pic.twitter.com/lkxoLshuzR
— unusual_whales (@unusual_whales) December 27, 2023
Goldman: "Our financial conditions index growth impulse model implies that the hit from higher rates is already behind us and that rate cuts are therefore optional next year"
Translation: the Fed may not cut at all as the market has already done all the cutting for it
— zerohedge (@zerohedge) December 27, 2023
Real GDI has only been negative once without the US being in a recession.
When was this? Just before the GFC.
It’s currently negative… pic.twitter.com/fWhsEif9i4
— George Gammon (@GeorgeGammon) December 27, 2023
The U.S. M2 Money Supply has declined for 12 consecutive months on a year-over-year basis, the first time in our nation's history that's occurred since the Great Depression pic.twitter.com/TJ5zb92PZX
— Barchart (@Barchart) December 28, 2023
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