Perhaps there is one more Democrat convention upswing, but it appears euphoria over Harris is fading. What’s going on?
On August 14, Harris held a 56.7 percent to 42.7 percent edge over Trump. Harris lead is now down to 53.8 percent to 45.7 percent.
Silver Bulletin Comments
🕒 Last update: 12:30 p.m., Saturday, August 17: More polling than we’re used to on a Saturday. The big news is a set of four New York Times/Siena College polls in Sunbelt states, which show somewhat quirky results: Harris +5 in Arizona, Harris +2 in North Carolina, Trump +1 in Nevada and Trump +4 in Georgia. Separately, there’s a Trump +1 in Pennsylvania that came in after our deadline yesterday.
The state-by-state results are interesting, though. It’s good that the NYT is willing to publish results like these rather than herd or self-censor. And following them, the model now has Harris as slightly more likely to win North Carolina than Georgia, and slightly more likely to win Arizona than Nevada.
Demographic Patterns Start to Look ‘Normal’
The New York Times reports Harris Gains in Sun Belt as Demographic Patterns Start to Look ‘Normal’ That’s a free link.
This morning, the latest New York Times/Siena College polls find an essentially tied race among likely voters across the four key Sun Belt battleground states, with Vice President Harris narrowly ahead in North Carolina and Arizona, while Donald J. Trump has the edge in Georgia and Nevada:
Arizona: Harris 50, Trump 45
Georgia: Trump 50, Harris 46
Nevada: Trump 48, Harris 47
North Carolina: Harris 49, Trump 47
I wouldn’t dwell too much on the precise results by state. On their own, each state poll is relatively inexact and subject to lots of uncertainty. Instead, focus on the big picture: Across the four states, it’s a dead heat. And a dead heat in these four states is not great news for Mr. Trump, who may need to take all three of Georgia, North Carolina and Arizona to win in November.
Ms. Harris has an 84-11 lead among Black voters in Georgia and North Carolina, the two battleground states where Black voters represent their largest share of the electorate.
Ms. Harris has taken the clear lead among young and Hispanic voters as well. Hispanic voters give her a 54-40 edge in Arizona and Nevada, the two swing states where Hispanic voters represent their largest share of the electorate, up from Mr. Biden’s narrow 47-43 lead in May. The story is similar among young voters (18 to 29), who give Ms. Harris a 55-39 lead across all four states.
It’s worth noting that Ms. Harris is still polling a bit beneath the 60-or-so percent of the vote that Democrats usually win among young and Hispanic voters in these states, even if it’s far better than where Mr. Biden stood in May. And even Ms. Harris’s edge among Black voters is still a tad lower than one would typically expect for a Democrat in these states.
One thing that’s not back to normal
One unusual feature of the polling this cycle is that Mr. Biden had been doing better among likely voters than the broader group of all registered voters.That’s still true here. Like Mr. Biden, Ms. Harris leads narrowly among voters who say they’re very likely to vote, but she trails by double digits among those who say they’re unlikely to vote.
Pooling all seven of our battleground state polls together, Ms. Harris leads by two points among those who are “almost certain” or “very likely” to vote, while Mr. Trump leads by 10 points among the rest.
There is much more in the above link for interested parties.
I expect to hear nonsense about NYT polling bias but there isn’t any. On the other side of the aisle, there is no polling bias for Fox News either.
There is polling bias for Rasmussen and many other pollsters, and Nate Silver adjusts for that.
Lack of bias does not mean guaranteed results. Both Nate Cohn at the NYT and Nate Silver are calling this a tossup despite the apparent lead of Harris.
I don’t trust the polls here.
Harris is still in a honeymoon period. If she does not have a convention bounce, that will be a very good sign for Trump.
Two Things Help Trump
- The Economy is Weakening
- Harris has a Bizarro economic plan
Kamala Harris and Her Free Money, More Inflation Now Proposals (MIN)
Regarding point 1, please see Kamala Harris and Her Free Money, More Inflation Now Proposals (MIN)
I outline 14 economic points, all of which I disagree with. Many independents will look at that and cringe. And I did not even mention the border.
Dueling Self-Inflicted Wounds
Trump made zero effort to appeal to anyone but MAGA supporters, then Kamala followed suit.
Neither J.D. Vance nor Tim Walz is a good VP running mate.
I highly doubt we have seen the end of self-inflicted wounds from either of them.
Recession Underway
Regarding point 2, I believe we are in recession and the recession will strengthen. Recessions always hurt the incumbent party.
July 25, 2024: “All Hell Breaks Loose” In the Next Few Months as Recession Bites
August 2: Unemployment Rate Jumps, Jobs Rise Only 114,000 with More Negative Revisions
August 2: 2024: The McKelvey (Sahm) Unemployment Rate Recession Rule Just Triggered
August 15, 2024: Industrial Production Declines 0.6 Percent on Top of Big Negative Revisions
Will recession be strong enough and arrive fast enough for Trump?
The answer will depend on dueling foot-in-mouth disease by both candidates and whether Trump can act civil enough and pull off a couple good debates.
The country deserves much better but here we are.