452k additional part-time jobs from economic reasons:
“partially reflecting an increase in the number of persons whose hours were cut due to slack work or business conditions…"
More people are trying to get full-time jobs at same time businesses are cutting them…— E.J. Antoni, Ph.D. (@RealEJAntoni) July 7, 2023
Revisions for Apr and May were negative 110k combined, so today's nonfarm number is only 99k above previously reported figure: pic.twitter.com/ygYzyJqIr7
— E.J. Antoni, Ph.D. (@RealEJAntoni) July 7, 2023
Nearly all jobs above pre-pandemic level have gone to foreign-born workers; Jun was first month native-born workers reached pre-pandemic levels; the weights BLS has on these categories is likely off, which explains some of the discrepancies in jobs numbers: pic.twitter.com/8AlbO6Kwyy
— E.J. Antoni, Ph.D. (@RealEJAntoni) July 7, 2023
Real hourly earnings moved sideways as wage increases matched estimated inflation; Fed wants to see both inflation and wage growth coming down, so this indicates more rate hikes coming: pic.twitter.com/8e5zrYEp4D
— E.J. Antoni, Ph.D. (@RealEJAntoni) July 7, 2023
Categories loosing jobs in Jun:
Mining and logging
Nondurable goods manufacturing
Wholesale trade
Retail trade
Transportation and warehousing
Utilities
Temporary help services— E.J. Antoni, Ph.D. (@RealEJAntoni) July 7, 2023
This rally may be a repeat of 2008’s ‘Bull Trap’ says Bank of America
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