The latest economic data is in, and the numbers are unsettling. Jobless claims surged to 248,000 for the week ending June 7, exceeding expectations of 242,000. This marks the highest level since November 2021, signaling cracks in the labor market. Continuing claims climbed to 1.956 million, surpassing forecasts of 1.910 million.
⚠️BREAKING:
*U.S. CONTINUING JOBLESS CLAIMS RISE 1.956 MILLION; EST. 1.910M; PREV. 1.902M
*HIGHEST SINCE NOVEMBER 2021
🇺🇸 🇺🇸 pic.twitter.com/ADBomCBLQz
— Investing.com (@Investingcom) June 12, 2025
PPI 0.1% MoM, Exp. 0.2%
PPI Core 0.1% MoM, Exp. 0.3%PPI 2.6% YoY, Exp. 2.6%
PPI Core 3.0% YoY, Exp. 3.1%— zerohedge (@zerohedge) June 12, 2025
🇺🇸 Morning Economic Data:
*Jobless Claims: Miss 🔴
*Continuing Jobless Claims: Miss 🔴
*PPI MoM: Beat 🟢
*PPI YoY: In Line
*Core PPI MoM: Beat 🟢
*Core PPI YoY: Beat 🟢What will Jerome Powell do now? $SPY pic.twitter.com/jBGsrsfQEt
— Jesse Cohen (@JesseCohenInv) June 12, 2025
The Producer Price Index (PPI) for May came in weaker than expected, reinforcing concerns about economic slowdown. Headline PPI rose 0.1 percent month-over-month, below the anticipated 0.2 percent. Core PPI, which excludes food and energy, also increased 0.1 percent, missing the 0.3 percent forecast. Year-over-year, headline PPI held at 2.6 percent, while core PPI landed at 3.0 percent, slightly under projections.
Markets wasted no time reacting. The US500 index dipped 0.23 percent, reflecting investor anxiety over slowing inflation and its implications for growth. Gold, typically a hedge against inflation, faced downward pressure as cooling price increases reduced its appeal. However, expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts could provide support. Bonds, on the other hand, are likely to benefit, as lower inflation eases concerns about aggressive monetary tightening.
The revisions to prior months add another layer to the story. March PPI was adjusted from negative 0.4 percent to flat, while April’s figure shifted from negative 0.5 percent to negative 0.2 percent. These changes suggest inflationary pressures have been weaker than initially reported, reinforcing the case for a more cautious Fed policy.
The broader picture remains uncertain. A softening labor market, coupled with slowing inflation, puts policymakers in a difficult position. Rate cuts may be on the horizon, but the timing and scale remain unclear. Investors will be watching closely for signals from the Federal Reserve in the coming weeks.
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