Job Surge Masks Economic Tensions; Fed’s Dilemma as Core Service Inflation Hits 4.6%, Recession Risks Surge in 2024

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Breaking news reveals a robust job addition of 199,000 in November, exceeding expectations, and pushing the unemployment rate down to 3.7%. A commendable 35 consecutive months of job growth paints a positive picture. However, the critical question remains: Can the Fed pivot amidst escalating inflation and a deteriorating economic landscape?

For everyday consumers, the reality is clear. The cost of living has surged over the past few years, outpacing wage increases. While life quality may have improved on a personal level, the economic circumstance is undeniably worse, marked by successive crises and persistent inflationary pressures.

Examining the Fed’s previous attempt to normalize its balance sheet during QT #1 (November 2017 to August 2019), a $688 billion reduction in total assets occurred without significant inflation. Fast forward to the present, and inflation, particularly in services, remains a concern. Core services inflation, standing at 4.6%, may even be underreported.

The Fed faces a challenging choice. It cannot turn dovish with inflation significantly above the FOMC 2% target. Consequences loom, with rising credit card and auto loan delinquencies, increasing corporate defaults, and declining bank lending.

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As the Fed holds its ground, the probability of a recession in 2024 is at levels seen only twice since 1960—both instances ending in severe recessions. The road ahead is treacherous, and the Fed’s decisions on interest rates will play a pivotal role in determining the economic course in the coming months.

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