The country recorded 686,061 births in 2024. That’s the lowest number since recordkeeping began in 1899. Deaths in the same year hit 1.62 million. That’s more than two funerals for every birth. The fertility rate now sits at 1.15. Replacement level is 2.1. Japan is not replacing itself.
The population stands at 124 million. By 2070, it’s projected to fall to 87 million. That’s a 30% drop in 45 years. Seniors already make up 30% of the population. By 2070, they’ll make up 40%. The working-age population is shrinking. The tax base is eroding. The military is aging. The schools are closing. The country is graying in real time.
Japan population is collapsing. The country has more deaths than births with its fertility rate below replacement levels.
They need to start making more babies in Japan.
Which policies are need to turn this around? pic.twitter.com/VKhs6GSsXC— Wall Street Mav (@WallStreetMav) June 26, 2025
The government is throwing money at the problem. In 2025, Tokyo earmarked 5.3 trillion yen, about $34 billion, for family support. That includes extended child allowances, subsidized childcare, and education support. Over the next three years, 3.6 trillion yen will be spent annually on these programs. The goal is to make parenthood less of a financial risk.
Marriage is collapsing too. Fewer than 500,000 couples married in 2024. That’s the lowest number in 90 years. In Japan, births outside marriage are rare. No marriage means no babies. The government has launched matchmaking apps and dating subsidies. The results are thin.
Work culture is part of the problem. Long hours, rigid schedules, and gendered expectations make parenting hard. In April, Tokyo introduced a four-day workweek for 160,000 state employees. Parents with young children can now leave work two hours early. The tradeoff is a pay cut. The hope is that more flexibility will lead to more families.
Immigration is being loosened. Japan is allowing more foreign workers to stay longer, switch jobs, and bring families. The goal is to triple the foreign workforce by 2040. That’s a shift for a country long resistant to immigration. The move is aimed at filling labor gaps in elder care, agriculture, and manufacturing.
The national burden rate is rising. That’s the share of income going to taxes and social insurance. For many workers, it’s approaching 50%. That leaves less money for housing, children, and savings. The irony is sharp. The system designed to support future generations is making those generations harder to create.
The government says it has until 2030 to reverse the trend. After that, the demographic curve becomes irreversible. The Tohoku University “population clock” estimates Japan will have one child left by the year 2720 if current trends hold. That’s not a forecast. It’s a warning.
The country is not alone. South Korea’s fertility rate is 0.72. China’s is 1.0. But Japan is the first to hit the wall at scale. The policies are in motion. The numbers are not moving.
Sources:
https://www.newsweek.com/japan-news-population-faces-extinction-amid-birth-rate-crisis-2012107
https://www.cnn.com/2025/06/05/asia/japan-birth-rate-record-low-intl-scli
https://www.newsweek.com/japan-news-plans-tackle-population-crisis-2025-2006421