The polls and election odds are breaking for Trump. Why?
Sky News has a nice video of the Harris Media Blitz.
I would not call a dead heat a polling disaster.
Let’s be honest. The disaster was Trump’s election odds 22.7 percentage point drop in the span of three weeks due to a miserable debate in which he did not practice.
In the last three weeks, Trump has gained back 8 points of the 22.7 points he lost.
Silver still has Trump behind, but just barely.
Polymarket Odds
On July 16, one could have bought Harris for 6 cents. Trump would have cost 72 cents.
Trump then fell to 44 percent down from 72 cents. That’s the real disaster.
You can now buy Trump for 58 cents or Harris for 42 cents.
How Much of a Political Lagging Indicator is Nate Silver?
On October 12, I asked How Much of a Political Lagging Indicator is Nate Silver?
Silver keeps changing to where Polymarket was a week ago.
Backfiring or Something Else?
The media blitz certainly did not help. Harris looked silly on 60 minutes and like a fool on The View when she said she would not have done anything differently than Biden.
Obama chastising black males likely backfired. But what about the economy?
Initial and Continued Unemployment Claims Surge
On October 11, I noted Initial and Continued Unemployment Claims Surge
But things are much worse than the chart of continued claims shows.
Also on October 11, I noted Continued Plus Long-Term Unemployment Claims Suggest Recession Right Now
Understanding the Chart
- The problem with continued claims is that benefits in 48 of 50 states expire after 26 week. Once a person hits 27 week, they are still unemployed but they have no claim.
- To address this issue, I add those unemployed 27 weeks or more to continued claims.
- Since claims are weekly, I compute a monthly average (not a 4-week moving average) of continued claims and add that to the monthly total of those unemployed 27 weeks or more.
Change in Unemployment by Age Group and Race
The next jobs report on November 1 (for October) could impact the election.
The Cost of Food Increased 0.4 Percent in September
On October 10, I asked The Cost of Food Increased 0.4 Percent in Sept, What’s in Your Basket?
The BLS just handed Trump a huge campaign talking point. Five charts.
If Trump was smart (not that he can or will do anything about this), he would hammer this issue hard, in the correct way, blasting Harris for suggesting price controls.
Also see A Racist Proposal by Harris Would Make Forgivable Loans to Blacks
The political pandering on both sides of the aisle continues with free money handouts. The latest by Harris is unconstitutional and racist.
I suspect that messaging didn’t and won’t work.
Who Will Decide the Election?
Back in February, I commented that renters would decide the election. That is still my base case.
Who are the renters?
Young voters and black. They are the ones least likely to have assets and the most impacted by inflation. In unprecedented numbers, young voters and blacks have switched to Trump.
Here’s the question that may be on their minds: Are you better off than four years ago?
On her media Blitz, Harris proved she will be just like Biden. That message coupled with the economy has Trump on a path to victory.
I will take Polymarket over Silver. But three weeks remain. Don’t start cheering (either way), until the votes are counted.