by Michael
A “perfect storm” of factors has created a global food crisis that just continues to intensify. While you are enjoying a warm dinner tonight, millions of parents on the other side of the globe will have nothing to give to their children. The world simply is not producing enough food to feed everyone, but I am entirely convinced that things are going to get dramatically worse by the end of this decade. Yesterday, I discussed the red horse of war. I believe that we are in the early stages of World War III, and during the years ahead we will see death and destruction on an unprecedented scale. Needless to say, conflict of that magnitude would greatly disrupt global food production and global supply chains, and as a result we would experience horrifying famines all over the planet.
The scenario that I just described is exactly what we see in the Book of Revelation.
In Revelation chapter 6, the black horse of famine immediately follows the red horse of war…
4 And there went out another horse that was red: and power was given to him that sat thereon to take peace from the earth, and that they should kill one another: and there was given unto him a great sword.
5 And when he had opened the third seal, I heard the third beast say, Come and see. And I beheld, and lo a black horse; and he that sat on him had a pair of balances in his hand.
6 And I heard a voice in the midst of the four beasts say, A measure of wheat for a penny, and three measures of barley for a penny; and see thou hurt not the oil and the wine.
Right now, we are literally teetering on the brink of such a disaster.
According to the UN’s World Food Program, we are dealing with “a hunger crisis of unprecedented proportions” right now…
Conflict, economic shocks, climate change and soaring prices for food and fertilizer are all combining in a perfect storm to create a hunger crisis of unprecedented proportions. Right now, in some of the hungriest places around the world, there just isn’t enough food to feed the population.
They are not talking about a “perfect storm” that is coming someday.
They are talking about a “perfect storm” that is already here.
Last year, more than 3 billion people could not afford to eat a healthy diet…
Worldwide, more than 3.1 billion people could not afford a healthy diet, according to the report. That’s 42% of the world’s population, and a significant increase over pre-COVID levels.
Why aren’t we hearing more about this?
Just because our families aren’t facing severe hunger yet does not mean that we shouldn’t be paying attention.
According to an article that was posted by the New York Times, the number of countries that are “at risk of famine” just continues to grow…
The list of countries at risk of famine now includes Afghanistan, Syria and Mali. Humanitarian observers also worry that North Korea may be nearing a famine.
That same New York Times article pointed out that things are particularly dire in eastern Africa…
About 90 million people are facing severe hunger in Ethiopia, Somalia, South Sudan, Sudan and Yemen. These countries, unfortunately, have their own histories of severe food shortages, but the world has never witnessed all of these countries descending toward mass starvation at the same time.
I am not the one that used the term “mass starvation” to describe what is happening in eastern Africa.
This is the New York Times that we are talking about.
Even they are admitting that this crisis has started to spiral out of control.
Here in the United States, there is still enough food to go around, but supplies of food have been getting tighter.
According to the Farm Bureau, the U.S. actually lost more than 140,000 farms during one recent five year period…
Between 2017 and 2022, the number of farms in the U.S. declined by 141,733 or 7%, according to USDA’s 2022 Census of Agriculture, released on Feb. 13. Acres operated by farm operations during the same timeframe declined by 20.1 million (2.2%), a loss equivalent to an area about the size of Maine.
And the size of the U.S. cattle herd is now the smallest that it has been in 73 years…
Not many ranchers active today will remember the last time the U.S. cattle industry was this small. On January 1, 2024, the All Cattle and Calves inventory was 87.15 million head, the smallest total inventory since 1951. The All Cattle and Calves inventory is 1.9 percent smaller year over year and is the fifth consecutive year of declining cattle inventories, a total decrease of 7.65 million head or 8.1 percent since the most recent peak in 2019. The 2023 calf crop was 33.6 million head, down 2.5 percent year over year and the smallest calf crop since 2014.
Meanwhile, the bird flu continues to spread all over the country, and this has pushed up egg prices dramatically in recent months…
Data from the United States Department of Agriculture shows that Grade A egg prices per dozen jumped 40% from $2.13 to $3 between November and February.
Of course just about everything has been getting a lot more expensive since Joe Biden entered the White House.
Here are some more examples…
Boneless chicken breast has increased in price 26%, from $3.26 per pound in January 2021 to $4.11 per pound in February 2024.
White bread per pound is 30% more expensive, up to $2.01 per pound in February vs. $1.55 per pound in January 2021.
And white sugar has increased cost per pound from $0.68 to $0.98 in the last three years, a 44% increase.
I always warned my readers that the way that the global food crisis would initially manifest itself in the United States would be through much higher food prices.
And now I believe we are reaching a tipping point for certain commodities.
Just look at what is happening to cocoa prices. They just continue to shoot up at an exponential rate…
May ICE NY cocoa (CCK24) today is up +381 (+5.42%), and May ICE London cocoa #7 (CAK24) is up +377 (+6.55%).
The May NY and London cocoa futures contracts today both rallied sharply to new contract highs on continued concern about tight cocoa supplies from West Africa.
Lower cocoa production in the Ivory Coast, the world’s largest producer, is a major bullish factor for cocoa prices. Monday’s government data showed Ivory Coast farmers shipped 1.22 MMT of cocoa to ports from October 1 to March 10, down -29% from the same time last year. The Ivory Coast cocoa regulator said last Thursday it expects the Ivory Coast mid-crop, which officially starts in April and is the smaller of two annual harvests, to fall -33% to 400,000 MT from 600,000 MT last year. Trader Ecom Agroindustrial projects Ivory Coast 2023/24 cocoa production, which ends in September, will fall -21.5% y/y to an 8-year low of 1.75 MMT.
I know that I have said it before, but I will say it again.
If you love chocolate, stock up now while you still can.
The same thing could be said for many other food items as well.
During a recent interview with Fox News, prepping expert James Nelson explained that most Americans are woefully unprepared for any sort of a major supply chain disruption…
Nelson calculated that if a freezer goes out, people will only have that food for three days. If the power goes out, Americans are now reduced to five days of food in their homes. A local suburban or urban area will also have about two weeks of food and has generators if the power goes out, but when people are dependent on storefronts, they will quickly be emptied out.
“In the event of even a temporary supply chain collapse, most homes are within two weeks of being entirely dependent on handouts from a government entity or non-government organization,” Nelson said.
“Anybody who doesn’t have 3 to 6 months of basic staples and food within your home, and the ability to grow a garden. Then what’s your plan? I mean, these are not weird concepts to talk about,” he added.
He is right.
Our world is rapidly approaching a time of unparalleled chaos, and most of the population is completely and utterly unprepared for it.
If you plan to get prepared, now is the time.
Because it appears that the black horse of famine is getting ready to ride, and it won’t be too long before it finally gets released.