— *Walter Bloomberg (@DeItaone) March 24, 2026
Factcheck: Reports of Iranian openness come from unnamed sources, with no confirmed formal negotiations announced by both sides
🚨BREAKING:
🇺🇸 🇮🇷 There’s been quiet outreach between the U.S. and Iran
Not full negotiations, but messages are being passed through intermediaries.
Iran says it’s willing to listen, but only to “sustainable” proposals.
Not just a ceasefire, a full agreement to end the… https://t.co/or793hozjp pic.twitter.com/YeKoCT6i94
— Mario Nawfal (@MarioNawfal) March 24, 2026
24% chance a nuclear deal is signed by the end of next month. https://t.co/K2G1dm0toG
— Polymarket (@Polymarket) March 24, 2026
Per AI:
Why agreement would be unlikely
- Sanctions relief first vs. leverage strategy
Trump has historically favored using sanctions as leverage rather than lifting them upfront. Agreeing to fully lift sanctions early would go against that approach. - Nuclear constraints vs. preservation of program
A deal that allows Iran to fully preserve its nuclear program with minimal restrictions would likely be seen as too weak from a U.S. security standpoint under Trump’s prior stance, which emphasized strict limits and verification. - Comprehensive vs. conditional deal structure
Trump has tended to prefer deals with:- strict enforcement mechanisms
- clear concessions tied to U.S. demands
- limited ambiguity
Iran’s described position (full sanctions relief + preserved nuclear program + guarantees) would require major concessions that are difficult to reconcile.
- Political and strategic signaling
Agreeing to broad concessions could be perceived domestically as giving up leverage leverage, which would be politically costly.
What could increase the chances
A deal becomes more plausible only if:
- Iran accepts significant nuclear limits and verification
- Sanctions relief is phased and conditional, not immediate and total
- Both sides frame the agreement as a mutual, enforceable compromise
Bottom line
If those demands are taken at face value, they represent a wide gap between the two sides. Under Trump’s known negotiating style, a direct acceptance of that full package would be unlikely without substantial modifications.