Forming in the West Caribbean and traveling thru the Yucatan Channel into the Gulf of Mexico. Heading NE into South Florida. GFS has 957mb at landfall.
Forecast track and intensity may change on future GFS runs, but stay vigilant.
Stay tuned for updates.
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
100 AM EST Tue Nov 12 2024
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=7
For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
1. Central and Western Caribbean Sea:
A tropical wave over the central Caribbean Sea is producing an area
of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions
appear conducive for development, and a tropical depression will
likely form late this week as the system moves westward into the
western Caribbean Sea. After that, the disturbance is expected to
slow down and meander through the weekend. Interests across the
western Caribbean Sea should monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days…high…70 percent.
Looks real. ICON also has a major cane in the GoM.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=icon®ion=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn&runtime=2024111200&fh=3
Insane Cane
#LOCKITIN pic.twitter.com/MgzaCr5JEE
— #LOCKITIN (@lockingitin) November 12, 2024
0z GFS continues to show development in the Caribbean and has a powerful hurricane 7 days from now. #FLwx #HurricaneSeason2024 pic.twitter.com/niE7Hml7Pp
— Florida Tropics (@FloridaTropics1) November 12, 2024
0z ICON has the Caribbean AOI off the tip of the Yucatán in a week’s time. On a path towards Florida on this run. Still far out so things will change. #FLwx #HurricaneSeason2024 pic.twitter.com/5mBe4qtxes
— Florida Tropics (@FloridaTropics1) November 12, 2024
Weeks after Hurricane Milton, these Florida neighborhoods are still flooded: https://t.co/CfXXBg6khU
— The Weather Channel (@weatherchannel) November 12, 2024
Latest update from NHC bumps up chances for development
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=7
GFS trending for a faster landfall. Now 11/20.
Tampa may get a direct hit
The impressively long lasting and robust tropical wave that's been ongoing now for days is now south of the Dominican Republic. This is the basis for our tropical development in the western Caribbean later this week. pic.twitter.com/vwtkyxnmfo
— Noah Bergren (@NbergWX) November 11, 2024
Here is what cooking. 1- Low pressure sliding west. Trapped for a few days giving time to develop. 2- High pressure starts to slide east with approaching front allowing turn NW/N. 3- Front approaching opening door for system to lift. 4- High moving out allowing system to turn… pic.twitter.com/eT2kVluTpn
— Mike's Weather Page (@tropicalupdate) November 12, 2024
Again… like I said before… this #event is happening rather quickly. Each run, the #models continue to come in more aggressively.#Tropics#FLWX#CentralFLWX
📡✝️🌀 pic.twitter.com/NLaHDIjEZF— FLWX_TropicalTracker_✝️ (@flimpct) November 12, 2024
Latest GFS has 916mb
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs®ion=watl&pkg=mslp_pcpn&runtime=2024111212&fh=174
Latest Tuesday 12z GFS ensembles and 12z GFS operational run. This for midweek next week. https://t.co/Hk3pbO7x8H pic.twitter.com/QyGCCxFFB3
— Mike's Weather Page (@tropicalupdate) November 12, 2024
h/t Truther Speaks