Just as confidence grew that inflation was tamed, it rears its head again, sending shockwaves through the markets. The Dow Jones takes a nosedive of more than 400 points following January’s inflation report, which significantly surpassed expectations.
Economists find themselves puzzled as both Core CPI and headline CPI register higher than anticipated for the second consecutive month. The unsettling reality extends beyond these headline figures, with inflation soaring in essential areas:
- Car Insurance Inflation: 20.6%
- Transportation Inflation: 9.5%
- Hospital Services Inflation: 6.7%
- Car Repair Inflation: 6.5%
- Homeowner Inflation: 6.2%
- Rent Inflation: 6.1%
- Food Away From Home Inflation: 5.1%
Market sentiments have swiftly shifted, pricing out two anticipated interest rate cuts in 2024 over the last six weeks. Affordability continues to worsen, with prices escalating for 34 consecutive months at an annualized rate of 3% or more.
Even as inflation slightly recedes, prices persist at elevated levels, signaling a prolonged struggle with affordability. The scenario becomes more precarious if energy prices, currently contained, experience a surge due to inflation, geopolitical issues, or supply/demand dynamics.
The spike in US inflation prices at the year’s outset further dims the likelihood of Fed officials reducing interest rates in the near future. Any acceleration in inflation could even trigger discussions about the possibility of rate hikes, intensifying the economic uncertainties ahead.
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While CPI inflation is at 3.1%, inflation is much higher in many basic necessities:
1. Car Insurance Inflation: 20.6%
2. Transportation Inflation: 9.5%
3. Hospital Services Inflation: 6.7%
4. Car Repair Inflation: 6.5%
5. Homeowner Inflation: 6.2%
6. Rent Inflation: 6.1%
7. Food…— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) February 13, 2024
BREAKING! US Headline #inflation fell to 3.1% in January, higher than expected!
Core #CPI did not fall at all, remaining at 3.9%. pic.twitter.com/ZH6px79d9a— jeroen blokland (@jsblokland) February 13, 2024