by Dismal-Jellyfish

www.bea.gov/news/2023/personal-income-and-outlays-june-2023

Wut mean?:

• In June, people earned $69.5 billion more, which is a 0.3% monthly rise–more money earned more money to spend, adding to inflation…
• Prices of things people bought (PCE price index) went up slightly by 0.2%. Even if we leave out the usually volatile food and energy prices (like the Fed does for reading their preferred inflation gauge on what to do), the increase was still 0.2%! Inflation is still growing!

Prices in June:

• The prices of tangible items (goods) dropped by 0.1%
• The cost for services (where ~2/3 of spending ends up) went up by 0.3%.
• The cost of food went down by 0.1%
• Energy got pricier by 0.6%.

Prices compared to a Year ago:

• The PCE price index is up by 3.0% compared to the same month the previous year.
• Prices for tangible goods dropped by 0.6%.
• Prices for services shot up significantly by 4.9%.
• The cost of food jumped by 4.6%.
• Energy prices down by 18.9%, however, as we have seen, energy is on the rise again.
• Excluding the food and energy prices, the PCE price index is up by 4.1% compared to a year ago–STILL MORE THAN DOUBLE THE FED’s TARGET RATE!

Spending in Real Terms (after adjusting for inflation) in June:

1. Real spending by consumers went up by 0.4%.
2. People spent 0.9% more on goods
3. Folks spent 0.1% more on services.
4. Big contributors to the spending on goods were motor vehicles (especially trucks) and recreational items, particularly video, audio, and tech equipment.
5. For services, people spent more on financial services and insurance.

What is Corporate Media saying?:

www.marketwatch.com/story/u-s-inflation-slows-again-pce-shows-966aa14c

www.marketwatch.com/story/fed-s-preferred-inflation-reading-cooled-in-june-c546fa88

www.marketwatch.com/articles/pce-price-inflation-data-report-today-2eadc4a2

We have seen this ‘slowdown’ they have talked about before, only for it to jump back up:

This is what Transitory looks like–up,down,up… They are celebrating the ‘down’ now but I am not convinced thee is not still more ‘up’ left!

TLDRS:

• In June, folks earned a bit more in, spent more, causing PCE, excluding food and energy (the Fed’s barometer for if inflation is still growing) to jump up .2% for the month and 4.1% year-over-year.
• Still more than DOUBLE the Fed’s target of 2%!
• Reminder, while banks have the liquidity fairy, ‘we’ get the promise of 2 more rate hikes this year, Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic yet again enrichens himself inappropriately from his position.
• To fix one end of their mandate (price stability) from the inflation problem they created, the Fed will continue sacrificing employment (the other end of their mandate) to bolster price stability by continuing to raise interest rates–causing further stress to businesses and households.
• I believe inflation is the match that has been lit that will light the fuse of our rocket.