Proposition 50, which temporarily replaces California’s existing congressional districts with an alternative map designed to elect more Democrats, passed easily last week; it currently has 64.6% of the vote. This outcome was part of a generally good election night for Democrats across the nation, as voters expressed their unhappiness with the direction of the country. The results point to relatively high voter engagement and may signal the revival of Democratic fortunes, but they do not necessarily indicate a change in voter attitudes toward the redistricting reform they set aside.
Voter engagement with Prop 50 was quite high. In the early-October PPIC Statewide Survey, 68% of likely voters said they considered the outcome of the measure to be very important, and 56% were planning to vote yes. Current data show that about 42% of eligible Californians cast a ballot, a larger share than in initiative special elections in 2005 (35%) or 2009 (21%). However, the turnout for Prop 50 was lower than turnout in the 2021 gubernatorial recall (52%); it was comparable to the 2022 midterm election (41%) and the 2003 gubernatorial recall (43%). And it did not come close to the turnout for a typical presidential election (60% in 2024), to say nothing of the nearly unprecedented turnout in 2020 (71%). In its margin of victory, Prop 50 was similar to the 2021 gubernatorial recall (62% keep Newsom) and the 2020 presidential election (63% Biden, 34% Trump).
The Prop 50 outcome suggests that the coalition Democrats rode to victory in the 2020 presidential election might be reemerging. Between 2020 and 2024, Democrats lost significant amounts of support among 18-to-29-year-old (75% to 58%) and Latino (75% to 59%) voters. If a yes vote on Prop 50 is treated as a vote for Democrats, Democratic support among each of these groups returned to something much closer to 2020 Democratic levels, according to a Prop 50 exit poll (18-to-29-year-olds: 80% yes; Latinos: 71% yes). Indeed, while a county’s vote for president in 2024 was an excellent predictor of its support for Prop 50, support in counties with larger Latino populations was stronger than the vote for Harris in 2024. Registered Democrats overwhelmingly supported Prop 50 both in our October survey (84%) and in the exit poll (96%).
MORE:
https://www.ppic.org/blog/key-takeaways-from-the-proposition-50-election/