Did ya’ll see that yield curve pop today? It’s well into positive territory now
This Barron’s article tries to play it off by saying that “Typically, a recession occurs between six and 24 months after the 2y10y yield curve—a chart mapping the yields on debt —has inverted. It is tempting to say things have malfunctioned in the bond world and that we should just give the U.S. economy a clean bill of health when yields on 10-year debt finally end a trading day above those on 2-year notes.”
www.barrons.com/articles/yield-curve-inversion-economy-47e40dbc
Ok, this is double speak bullshit to avoid the panic. The depression INVARIABLY comes after it normalizes and has NOTHING to do with when the inversion STARTS.
Invariably. No exceptions since the 80s.
They’re bullshitting you, because they’re busy moving their money out, slowly, carefully. You see that slow dip in the market? That’s the graph that says they’re leaving US to hold the bag.
Made this Twitter account just so you can embed this image wherever you want. Don't let them tell you we aren't about to be in a major recession. The charts say it's literally inevitable now, and that it's going to be historically bad unless a miracle happens. pic.twitter.com/c5mkHpvL1u
— cat herder (@catherder777) September 6, 2024
www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm
Mannarino has a good explanation of the weirdness in the bond market here
AC