If the economy is so hot why have these brand new homes been for sale for months and months? Moment of truth has arrived…

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Lower-income households are getting squeezed by essentials while higher earners keep the discretionary engines running.



Are consumers holiday-ready?

November credit/debit spending slowed to 1.3% YoY, steady from October.

Wage growth: 4% for high-income, 1.4% for low.

Holiday spending started strong in October, cooled after Black Friday.

Consumers remain financially healthy, not heavily reliant on credit or BNPL.

Small biz profits dipped below zero YoY for the first time in 18 months.

Prices rose sharply, passing costs to customers, while hiring slowed 4.6%.

Small business owners stay hopeful despite cautious outlook.

Lower-income households face higher inflation, spending more on essentials like food and shelter.

Housing costs dominate their budgets, but entertainment and online shopping stay steady.

Discretionary spending shifts more to higher-income households.

Source: BofA Institute

Vibecession. While real income continues to grow, the vibes are declining
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