Leaving aside the wisdom of doing what Trump says, how easy or hard would it be to fulfill his campaign promise?
Challenges Ahead
Assume Trump wins. The Wall Street Journal discusses the question What Can Trump Deliver on Illegal Migration?
We know Donald Trump can talk the talk on illegal migration. The question is what he would be able to deliver in a second term.
In 2016 Trump vowed to wall off the southern border and send the bill to Mexico. It didn’t happen. Now Mr. Trump is promising to “carry out the largest domestic deportation operation in American history.”
Daniel Di Martino, a native of Venezuela who follows the economics of migration at the Manhattan Institute, is skeptical. “Twenty years ago, 90% of the people arriving were Mexican,” Mr. Di Martino says. “Today, maybe two-thirds are not Mexican. It’s easier to send back Mexicans. It’s not so easy to send back others. You can’t send to Mexico people who are not Mexican.
“Nobody who has a pending immigration court date can be deported until their case is resolved through the immigration courts,” Mr. Di Martino says. “And the people who have dates are the recent people who came under Biden.” Which means that if Mr. Trump deports anybody, it’s likely to be the far more sympathetic cases who arrived decades ago, stayed out of trouble, put down roots and may now have American spouses and children.
Mr. Trump might have designs on reviving “Remain in Mexico” protocols, under which some non-Mexican asylum seekers were forced back across the border and housed in makeshift encampments while their claims were adjudicated. But Mexico has taken a more authoritarian turn since Mr. Trump left office, and it’s uncertain whether the new government’s judicial reforms would accommodate such a policy. Mr. Trump likewise may try to reinstate Title 42, which prevented migrants from applying for asylum during Covid. But that was an emergency measure, and bringing it back might not survive a court challenge now that the health scare has ended.
The border is a priority for voters this year, and polling consistently has shown that they trust Donald Trump far more than Kamala Harris to handle the issue. If Mr. Trump is elected to a second term, the current administration’s disastrous migrant policies will have played an outsize role. No one expects Mr. Trump to dial down his grandiose deportation rhetoric between now and the election, but if he wins, reality will set in at some point. Voters deserve to know what is and isn’t doable on day one.
Trump’s Pledge
“As soon as I take the oath of office, I will terminate every open border policy of the Biden administration and begin the largest deportation operation in American history.”
Link to Trump Video if Tweet does not display.
More Roadblocks
The article failed to mention sanctuary cities and the cost of rounding everyone up.
Many of my readers have the delusional idea that all Trump has to do is snap his fingers.
But where does the money come from? The policies?
A lot of people will go home if they can’t work for less than minimum wage in our own country,” said J. D. Vance in a debate with Walz.
That’s absurd because if you increase wages you increase the incentive to come. But that’s mainly a preventative issue, not a deportation issue, although Vance seems to think 20 percent would leave voluntarily. What about the other 80 percent?
Vance wants to make it illegal to hire illegal immigrants. That backfired in Florida but assume it happens. How?
Policies and the money to enforce them and round up immigrants would come from Congress.
I suppose if Republicans get a clean sweep of enough magnitude, it would be possible, but would every Republican but two (assuming a 51-49 split) back a measure to deport millions? Criminals yes, but million en masse, no.
And although Republicans could ram though one spending bill, any nonfinancial matters would be subject to filibuster.
Case Study: The Impact of Senate Bill 1718 on Florida
Florida recently implemented legislation targeting undocumented immigrants, with repercussions that surprised even the lawmakers who had supported it—and illustrate that, inevitably, hardline immigration enforcement measures will have negative economic impacts on U.S. citizens.
In May 2023, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis signed Senate Bill 1718 into law. SB 1718 requires private businesses with 25 or more employees to use the federal E-Verify database to screen new workers; makes it a felony to transport an undocumented immigrant into the state or for an undocumented immigrant to use a false ID to obtain work; and prohibits undocumented immigrants from driving with an out-of-state license, among other provisions.
Even before the law went into effect that July, undocumented immigrants began moving out of state, afraid and unable to work. Within months, farmers, builders, restaurants, hotels, and other businesses in the state complained of worker shortages. Even people with legal work authorization moved, worried for their undocumented family members.
“They’re just picking up and leaving to a state where they’re more friendly towards migrants, where they don’t have to be looking over their shoulder every 10 seconds and saying, ‘Look, I’m going … to be deported,’” Greg Batista, owner of G. Batista Engineering & Construction, told the Tampa Bay Times.
Construction projects stalled, fruit rotted in the fields, hotels and restaurants fired staff and put up “Help Wanted” signs. Rental units were left empty, and businesses lost customers. Walt Disney World had trouble finding cast members. State representatives who had themselves supported the legislation publicly appealed to immigrants not to leave.
Florida’s experience provides a small peek into how a national mass deportation of undocumented immigrants would have more significant impact across states and economic sectors in the U.S. economy. While Florida is home to a higher share of undocumented immigrants than most states—five percent compared with the national average of 3.3 percent—its outsized reliance on undocumented immigrant workers is not atypical.
What Would Trump’s Mass Deportation of Immigrants Cost?
On October 15, I asked What Would Trump’s Mass Deportation of Immigrants Cost?
The Middle Ground
We need sensible immigration policy. Mass deportation of 10 to 15 million immigrants (or even 6 million) is not sensible.
Those who believe US citizens will clean hotel rooms and provide construction labor in the hot sun at a reasonable (if any) cost are crazy.
It’s a dirty, not-so-secret, fact that red state and blue state alike depend on migrant labor for construction projects, hotels, cooking and cleaning jobs etc.
I suggest we deport criminals, have a reasonable amnesty program for hard working immigrants who have been here for years, and mostly close the border using the military if necessary.
Future immigration should be based on our genuine needs.
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