- More than 40,000 signed home purchase agreements were canceled in December, representing 16.3% of all homes that went under contract, according to Redfin.
- There were roughly 47% more home sellers than buyers in the market in December, according to the real estate brokerage.
- Atlanta saw the most contract cancellations in December.
Serious headwinds in the housing market and the broader economy are tanking home sales at an alarming rate.
More than 40,000 signed home purchase agreements were canceled in December, representing 16.3% of all homes that went under contract, according to Redfin, a real estate brokerage. That’s up from 14.9% in December 2024.
It’s is also the highest share since Redfin began tracking the metric in 2017.
“High housing costs and rising inventory have made homebuyers more selective,” said Chen Zhao, head of economics research at Redfin. “Home sellers outnumber buyers by a record margin, meaning the buyers who are in the market have options and may walk away if they believe they can find a better or more affordable home.”
https://www.cnbc.com/2026/01/27/homebuyers-backing-out-of-deals.html
1) I put together this handy spreadsheet comparing the wage growth reported by BLS, Atlanta Fed, Paycheck Small Business, and Indeed.
On average, hourly wages grew at 3.16% in the 12 months ending December 2025.
That's down from the long-run average of 3.64% for the set. pic.twitter.com/P7gnXobbDo
— Nick Gerli (@nickgerli1) January 27, 2026
3) The way this translates into real estate in 2026 is multi-fold:
a) less demand to buy houses from low/middle income Americans. This group was already on the margins of buying due to high prices, however, slowing wage growth will cement the reality for many of them that it's…
— Nick Gerli (@nickgerli1) January 27, 2026
6) Some states are more affordable than others.
For instance, West Virginia's Value/Income Ratio is only 2.7x.
While California's is 7.3x.
Meaning West Virginia is 3x cheaper than California, even AFTER adjusting for differences in local incomes. pic.twitter.com/UVq6cmOaiz
— Nick Gerli (@nickgerli1) January 27, 2026
“US rental market largely frozen right now, caught between elevated economic uncertainty & normal seasonal slowdown we see in winter months,” said Georgiades, @Zumper CEO. “While new supply deliveries set to ease…rebound in rents unlikely to be uniform.”https://t.co/JMRj3LxIBk pic.twitter.com/tTmG01CQF6
— Danielle DiMartino Booth (@DiMartinoBooth) January 27, 2026