History Repeats: Soft Landings Precede Hard Landings, Is the Cycle Replaying?

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Home Sales Hit a New Low: 2023 Ends with Weakest Performance Since 1995

The real estate market witnessed a significant downturn in December, with sales of previously owned homes dropping 1% from November to 3.78 million units, adjusted seasonally and annualized. This decline marks a 6.2% decrease compared to December 2022, reaching the lowest point since August 2010. The year 2023 closed with only 4.09 million units sold, the weakest performance since 1995. Regionally, sales remained flat in the Northeast but fell in other areas, with a 4.3% decrease in the Midwest, a 2.8% drop in the South, and though the West saw a 7.8% increase. These numbers reflect home closings from contracts likely signed in late October and November, a period when mortgage rates were considerably higher, peaking at around 8% in October before dropping to the 7% range in November. The current rate stands at 6.89%, as per Mortgage News Daily.

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Fed’s Balance Sheet QT, Liabilities: RRPs -$1.78 trillion from Peak, to $590 Billion, but Reserves Rise to $3.6 Trillion as Liquidity Drains and Shifts

As the Fed’s Quantitative Tightening hums along on autopilot, its assets have fallen by nearly $1.3 trillion as of its weekly balance sheet released on Thursday, and its liabilities have fallen in equal amounts. The dropping liabilities are a result of QT. Here we’ll discuss two of the Fed’s big four liabilities: ON RRPs and Reserves.

JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon Remains Cautious on the U.S. Economy

JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon expressed caution regarding the U.S. economy for 2024 and 2025 due to various financial and geopolitical risks, including the situation in Ukraine, terrorism in Israel and the Red Sea, and the impact of quantitative tightening by the Federal Reserve. Despite record profits at JPMorgan and a resilient U.S. economy buoyed by employment and savings, Dimon advised against complacency, citing the artificially stimulating effects of fiscal and monetary policies on the stock market.

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