The Republican-led budget bill is crawling toward the Senate floor, but the public isn’t buying it. A Washington Post-Ipsos poll shows 42% of Americans oppose the legislation. Only 23% support it. The rest haven’t made up their minds or haven’t heard enough to care. That’s not a debate. That’s a rejection. The bill passed the House by a narrow margin in May. Now Senate Republicans are racing to meet Trump’s July 4 deadline. The clock is ticking. The numbers are not moving.
The bill is branded the “One Big Beautiful Bill Act.” It rewrites tax codes, reshuffles Medicaid, and slashes climate spending. It also throws $50 billion at the southern border wall and $45 billion at migrant detention centers. The child tax credit would rise from $2,000 to $2,500. Tips would be tax-free. But the tradeoff is steep. Food assistance gets cut. Green energy tax breaks get axed. Medicaid funding shrinks. The public isn’t confused. They’re just not on board.
Among Republicans, 49% support the bill. Only 13% oppose it. But independents lean against it 40% to 17%. Democrats are overwhelmingly opposed. The Senate version makes deeper cuts to Medicaid and softens the rollback on green energy credits. That’s not helping. House Republicans are already warning the Senate version is dead on arrival. Speaker Mike Johnson can only afford to lose three votes. He hasn’t said a word about the Senate’s draft.
The bill’s path is narrowing. The Freedom Caucus is restless. Centrist Republicans are balking at the Medicaid caps. The SALT deduction cap is still in play. The Senate Finance Committee released its final text this week. It didn’t calm anyone down. The House is signaling it won’t accept the changes. The Senate doesn’t want to rewrite them. The standoff is real.
The public’s awareness is low. Two-thirds of Americans say they’ve heard little or nothing about the bill. But among those who have, opposition is nearly two to one. That’s not a messaging problem. That’s a substance problem. The bill is packed with provisions that poll poorly. Sixty-six percent oppose cutting food aid. Sixty-one percent oppose the migrant detention funding. Fifty-two percent oppose the border wall money. The numbers are consistent. The support is not.
The GOP is trying to thread a needle with a chainsaw. The bill is too aggressive for moderates and too soft for hardliners. Trump wants it passed before Independence Day. That’s the deadline. That’s the pressure point. But the votes aren’t there. The public isn’t behind it. The Senate is rewriting it. The House is rejecting it. This is not momentum. This is gridlock.
Sources:
https://www.rsn.org/001/poll-gop-budget-bill-faces-nearly-2to1-opposition-with-many-unaware.html
https://politicalwire.com/2025/06/17/gop-tax-bill-faces-nearly-2-1-opposition/
https://thehill.com/homenews/house/5355954-gop-bill-opposition-house-medicaid-salt/