via Mike Shedlock:
Democrats are unlikely to take a clean sweep of the White House, Senate and House. Here’s the Senate math.
Terrible candidate selection cost Republicans the Senate in 2022.
Trump is 100 percent to blame. Trump-backed senate candidates flamed out in Pennsylvania, Georgia, and Arizona.
2024 rates to be different.
Great Chance
The Wall Street Journal reports Republicans Have a Great Chance to Retake the Senate in 2024
There are 34 Senate races in 2024. Democrats and Democratic-aligned independents occupy 23 of the seats, eight of which are rated competitive or vulnerable by Inside Elections, a nonpartisan publication that analyzes House and Senate races. Republicans are only defending 11 seats, all of them in states won by Trump in 2020. Of those, only the Texas seat held by Sen. Ted Cruz is rated competitive.
“The Senate majority is firmly in play, and Republicans have a great opportunity to win control of the Senate,” said Nathan Gonzales, editor and publisher of Inside Elections. “But we’ve seen Republicans throw away opportunities before.”
Democrats’ hopes of keeping their 51-49 Senate majority took a hit last month when centrist Democratic Sen. Joe Manchin decided not to run for re-election in West Virginia, a state that Trump won by almost 39 percentage points in 2020. Trump has endorsed Republican Gov. Jim Justice in West Virginia’s Republican primary. Justice is dominating polling against Republican Rep. Alex Mooney. The winner of the GOP primary is expected to cruise to victory in the November general election.
With West Virginia seen as off the table, the battle for the Senate is centered on Montana, where Democratic Sen. Jon Tester is running for a fourth term, and Ohio, where Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown is defending the seat he has held since 2007. Trump won Montana by 16 percentage points and Ohio by 8 percentage points in 2020.
Those races might not even matter. If Republicans successfully defend all their current seats and win Manchin’s seat in West Virginia, as expected, and if the party’s nominee also wins the White House, Republicans will control the Senate in 2024, thanks to the new vice president’s tiebreaking vote, without picking up any other seats.
Trump, Abortion, and Poor Candidate Selection Again in Play
2024 will not be a repeat fiasco of 2022, but Republican abortion messaging is totally out of sync with the nation and it could cost them again in Ohio, Montana, or Arizona.
In Ohio, a state Trump carried by 8 percentage points in 2020, Ohioans passed an Amendment for Abortion Rights on November 7, 2023.
The amendment will take effect in 30 days, per Ohio law. Upon its enactment, it would prohibit limits on abortion before fetal viability.
Any prohibitions on abortion after fetal viability – generally accepted as between 22-24 weeks gestation but would be determined by an individual’s doctor – would not apply should the pregnant person’s health or life be at risk.
Gov. Mike DeWine – who signed the six-week abortion ban into law – has long opposed abortion access. Secretary of State Frank LaRose, who is also running for U.S. Senate, was among the most vocal opponents of the abortion amendment, even before it was placed on the ballot.
If LaRose is the nominee, it could cost Republicans the Senate again, so don’t rule out more Republican stupidity.
On November 10, before the amendment took effect, Rolling Stone reported Ohio Republicans Say It’s Their ‘God Given Right’ to Restrict Abortion Access
Republicans in Ohio want to undermine the will of voters who approved a measure enshrining reproductive freedom into the state’s constitution
Ohio Republicans are claiming a constitutional amendment protecting abortion rights, which was approved by voters in Tuesday’s election, doesn’t actually do that — and they’re promising to take steps to prevent the legal protection of reproductive freedom in the state.
The strategy Republicans are now proposing would essentially strip Ohio’s courts of the authority to repeal existing abortion restrictions before the new amendment goes into effect on December 7.
Subverting the clear will of a 57-43 percent majority of voters, by constitutional amendment, is just plain stupid.
It appears common sense eventually took hold because Republicans decided not to enforce their “God-given rights”.
Spotlight Arizona
The Wall Street Journal notes “Arizona, which voted to elect Biden in 2020 by less than 1 percentage point, could see a three-way matchup between independent Sen. Kyrsten Sinema, Democratic Rep. Ruben Gallego and former local TV news anchor Kari Lake, a Republican who is still contesting the results of her 2022 loss for governor.”
Sinema, elected as a Democrat switched to being an independent. She has not yet made a decisions to run. If so it could be a three-way race with highly uncertain results.
Roll Call on Kari Lake
The Roll Call says Kari Lake running in Arizona sharpens contours of 2024 Senate race
“Arizonans know exactly who Kari Lake is — and that’s why they rejected her the first time around,” Gallego said in a statement. “While she runs her same, tired playbook of undermining our democracy and pushing to ban abortion, I’m focused on addressing the very real problems that impact Arizona families, like creating good-paying jobs, securing our water future, and taking care of our veterans.”
Lake, who was recently in Washington, had what a source close to the campaign said were positive meetings with a number of Republican senators, including Conference Chairman John Barrasso of Wyoming and John Cornyn of Texas.
Arizona Democratic Party Chairwoman Yolanda Bejarano said in a statement after the launch event that Lake’s positions were not in line with Arizona on topics from abortion rights and Social Security to “putting cameras in classrooms.”
If Kari Lake is the Republican nominee in a two-way race, her radical right ideas in a purple state could easily be her doom.
Republicans would be better off with nearly anyone else.
What it Boils Down To
If Trump wins, Republicans will take the Senate. Joe Manchin’s seat flipping will suffice.
If Biden or the Democratic nominee wins, then Republicans will need to pick up a seat in Ohio, Arizona, Montana, or somewhere else.
If radical anti-abortion and stop-the steal proponents are the Republican Senate nominees in swing races, Republican can again snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.
So far, it appears they are heading in that direction.