The world is experiencing a significant demographic change. The replacement fertility rate—the average number of births per woman needed to maintain a population without migration—stands at 2.1. However, current trends indicate that the global fertility rate is on a downward trajectory and is poised to dip below this crucial threshold.
By 2050, projections suggest that 155 out of 204 countries will have fertility rates falling short of the replacement level. This decline indicates a shift in family planning and societal structures, leading to potential long-term challenges. Factors such as increased access to education, changing societal norms, and economic considerations are contributing to this trend.
Given a replacement rate of 2.1, the global fertility rate looks on track to fall below replacement levels. pic.twitter.com/JdX2k4twne
— The Rabbit Hole (@TheRabbitHole84) November 2, 2024
Looking even further ahead, by 2100, an astonishing 97% of countries are expected to have fertility rates below replacement levels. This dramatic shift will not only alter population dynamics but also pose economic and social challenges. A declining population can strain social services, including healthcare and pensions, as fewer workers support an aging population.
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