Since S&P 500’ s October low, forward P/E of 50 largest stocks (blue) is up by 30% … there hasn’t been any gain in forward EPS (orange) over same timeframe
[Past performance is no guarantee of future results] pic.twitter.com/x46OMr9Ufe— Liz Ann Sonders (@LizAnnSonders) June 16, 2023
Source: Goldman Sachs
— Markets & Mayhem 🤖 (@Mayhem4Markets) June 16, 2023
When you realize just 200bps put the US into a slowdown in 2018 but the Fed kicked the can to 2023 and now we’re at 510bps with people named IBangUrMom69420 selling their get rich quick courses on buying call options. It ends well. pic.twitter.com/scJ6SJ37AD
— Don Johnson (@DonMiami3) June 16, 2023
This isn't a new bull market.
This is the longest and most deceptive bear market rally in history.
Risk-off will return.
It always does. pic.twitter.com/qgc2v0fsZL
— Michael A. Gayed, CFA (@leadlagreport) June 16, 2023
Analysis-Overexposed US Regional Banks Could Sell Commercial Property Loans
A Recent Economist/YouGov Poll Found That 52% Believe the Economy Is Getting Worse
President Biden’s economic plans have not effectively tamed inflation. Despite his claims, the cumulative impact of his government spending already surpasses that of any other president this century. The 4% increase in the inflation rate is not a result of his policies, but rather the Federal Reserve’s intervention.
Big Stock Rally Could Be Followed by ‘Big Collapse’: Bank of America
Michael Hartnett, the chief investment strategist at Bank of America, has cautioned that the stock market may face another downturn soon. He doubts the emergence of a new bull market and compares the current situation to previous market collapses in 2000 and 2008. Hartnett predicts a maximum upside of 100 to 150 points for the S&P 500 but warns of a downside risk of 300 points by early September, mentioning Labor Day specifically.
Speculators Still Don’t Believe the Fed Will Hike Rates Twice More This Year
On June 14, the Fed signaled two more interest rate hikes in 2023, with one scheduled for July. The market agrees with the “Long Pause Theory” of no rate cuts this year. However, the author remains skeptical, believing that stock prices are inflated and unrealistic, regardless of the Fed’s actions.