lorida’s housing market is being flooded with supply. Listings increased by 7.3% last month alone, and on a year-over-year basis, they’re up by 33%. This surge has taken us to the highest level of housing inventory since the 2008-09 crash. For those with short memories, Florida saw home prices drop by 50% during that crisis. We’re not in the same situation yet, but the trend is undeniable.
A spike in supply like this raises real concerns. While we won’t likely see a 50% drop in home values this time, it’s clear that the market is heading into uncertain territory. Markets that have been hit hardest with the most significant supply increases include Naples, Orlando, Cape Coral, Miami, and Port St. Lucie—all seeing over 40% year-over-year increases in inventory. This isn’t just a small shift; it’s a full-on flood of new homes hitting the market.
Interestingly, one area, Tallahassee, saw a decrease in inventory, down 12% year-over-year. But everywhere else in Florida? Supply is on the rise, and it’s rising fast. Home prices in Florida have only slightly corrected so far, with the typical value down 1.3% year-over-year, according to Zillow. But that’s just the beginning.
It usually takes about 6 to 12 months for home prices to adjust after a surge in supply, which means we can expect Florida’s housing market to cool down further as 2025 rolls on. If you’re thinking about buying in Florida, especially in Southwest Florida, it’s important to proceed with caution.
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