Spaghetti Models have tightened up.
GFS goes bonkers with it.
Some Hurricane Models showing a Cat 5.
Tons of recon flying in today.
Tracking over record hot water in the Gulf.
Forecast shows atmospheric conditions very good to near ideal for intensification all the way to landfall.
Stay tuned to updated details.
National Hurricane Center’s latest forecast discussion.
Take special note
www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT5%20shtml/270859.shtml
The very warm and deep waters of the northwestern Caribbean Sea and
Gulf of Mexico should support at least gradual strengthening during
the next few days, tempered by moderate shear from a flat upper-
level trough. However, this trough is forecast to amplify over the
western Gulf of Mexico around Tuesday, which causes the shear to
decrease near the cyclone in that time frame. There’s a notable
risk of rapid intensification while the system moves across the
record warm eastern and northeastern Gulf of Mexico, which is
highlighted by the recent HAFS and HWRF guidance. The new NHC
forecast is raised from the previous one, near or above the model
consensus, and could be too low. I’m reluctant to make any big
changes to the forecast until we get more in-situ data, but the
upward overnight model trend certainly bears watching. Users are
reminded to continue monitoring forecasts for any changes to the
system’s expected intensity as it approaches Florida.
8/27 6z ICON is remarkably similar to its 0z run and is sticking to its landfall near Crystal River. #TD10 pic.twitter.com/fPMiBv2ZvT
— Florida Tropics (@FloridaTropics1) August 27, 2023
Seeing more convection fire as recon approaches #TD10 pic.twitter.com/HJZRQCtzD8
— Florida Tropics (@FloridaTropics1) August 27, 2023
8/27 00z hurricane models are intense. A summary below #TD10
HAFS-B: a major hurricane into St. Marks
HAFS-A: a major hurricane makes landfall SW of Perry
HMON: hurricane landfall near Port St. Joe (third run in a row to the same area)
HWRF: hurricane landfall SW of Perry pic.twitter.com/DGgJY9LbTP— Florida Tropics (@FloridaTropics1) August 27, 2023
h/t DOORBERT