Bullet point summary:
- Credit demand has slumped, with new renminbi loans to the real economy turning negative for the first time since 2005 in July. The slow take-up comes as policymakers have struggled to stabilize the real estate sector, undermining household confidence in a country where property accounts for most of people’s wealth.
- Only 10% of Beijing’s $70B rescue plan has been used since May as banks, local governments and others struggle to agree on property pricing.
- Credit demand has slumped, with new renminbi loans to the real economy turning negative for the first time since 2005 in July.
- New home sales by area were about half the level of three years ago on a rolling 12-month basis as of June, and construction starts were down two-thirds from their peak in early 2021 despite multiple property support measures
- Goldman Sachs has estimated that China’s new housing inventory could be up to 30 times average monthly sales. To reach the 2018 average of nine months’ worth of monthly sales, the government would need to spend $1 TRILLION, buying housing inventory at 50% haircut of market prices
https://www.ft.com/content/9f4fc133-46b0-47f2-844b-1af9718bd90a
h/t YorkieCheese