Fed’s Powell to double down of hawish rate message. Or banks and consumers can expect no sugar tonight.
Expect a hawkish Fed Chairman Jerome Powell to double down on the Fed’s commitment to vanquish inflation at his semiannual testimony before Congress on June 21-22. While the immediate audience will be lawmakers, the message will be aimed at markets, which remain unconvinced the Fed will hike by another 50 basis points, as indicated in the dot plot from the June FOMC meeting. Powell may raise his hawkish tone to push back against such views.
Even as Powell is putting on a hawkish performance, confirmation hearings for World Bank Executive Director Adriana Kugler — as well as to extend Fed Governor Lisa Cook’s term — could reinforce the dovish faction on the Fed, somewhat diluting Powell’s message.
What we expect at the June 21-22 hearings:
- The updated dot plot from the June FOMC meeting shows a majority of FOMC participants anticipate at least 50 bps more of rate hikes this year. Markets aren’t convinced – as of the time of writing, futures point to a 74% chance of rate hike in July and only a 10% chance of an additional rate hike in 2023.
- Powell’s main task at the testimony will be to convince markets that officials stand behind the dot plot and anticipate multiple hikes.
- Powell will likely be asked why the FOMC didn’t hike in June if inflation remains a threat. He’ll say that 500 bps of hikes to date allow the central bank to moderate its pace while gauging economic conditions, and will appeal to the Fed’s dual mandate as warranting a cautious approach. That will be music to the ears of Democrat lawmakers.
- Powell said a decision on whether to hike at the July FOMC meeting will be “live.” We take that to mean the bar not to hike will be high, but it’s not a done deal. Powell will likely clarify that comment at his testimony.
- The published semiannual monetary policy report offers a preview of how Powell will make the hawkish case:
- While the labor market is still “very tight,” it has been softening gradually — and by some measures, labor-market tightness has eased “more substantially over the past year.”
- Some outside studies are arguing that wages did not contribute to or lead inflation, but the monetary-policy report notes that “prospects for slowing inflation may depend in part on a further easing of tight labor-market conditions.” Thus, the Fed still stands by the conventional economic wisdom that the Phillips Curve is well and alive – and that a tradeoff exists between inflation and the unemployment rate.
- Powell will probably reiterate that low inflation is a necessary condition for achieving the Fed’s mandate, as he has many times before: “Restoring price stability is essential to set the stage for achieving maximum employment and stable prices over the longer run.”
- Our view is that if inflation remains as high as the FOMC projects, it would be appropriate for the Fed to hike by at least 50 bps more. But the latest batch of indicators show some encouraging progress on goods and housing disinflation; as a result, our baseline is for inflation to fall short of the median FOMC participant’s forecast.
- The Senate Banking Committee hearing on the nominations of Cook, Kugler and Vice Chair Philip Jefferson will likely be less eventful. During this period of high inflation, nominees will need to lean more hawkish in their public statements than they otherwise would.
- Nevertheless, if the full slate of nominees is confirmed, it will add one more dove to the board of governors, heightening discord on the FOMC.
- Jefferson’s nomination to the vice-chair post vacated by Lael Brainard won’t affect policy direction, as he’s already serving on the board. He previously was confirmed by a vote of 91-7, and we expect his confirmation as vice chair to be similarly easy.
- Though we have yet to hear much from Kugler on her monetary-policy outlook, her research focus on labor markets creates a likely bias toward the maximum-employment element of the Fed’s dual mandate.
- In addition to Jefferson and Kugler’s nominations, Cook — whose term is slated to end in January 2024 — would see her governorship extended for the full 14-year term. If confirmed, it would keep her dovish voice on the FOMC longer than before.
- Cook, who is perceived as more dovish and more political than the other nominees — she’s a former adviser to the Biden transition team – saw her previous nomination barely confirmed 51-50, with Vice President Kamala Harris casting the tie-breaking vote. It’s unclear if she’ll have enough support this time to clear the confirmation hurdle.
- Bottom line: The hearings present an opportunity for Powell to bring market pricing in line with what has been put forth in the FOMC’s Summary of Economic Projections. We are doubtful that he will succeed.
The most recent Fed dots plot suggests rate declines in future years.
Cryptos are up this morning.
Commodities are down this AM.
So, like in the film Blue Velvet, we have the choice between Michelob or Pabst Blue Ribbon. Powell is choosing …. PBR!!
