2024 promises volatility! Fund managers bullish on duration, yet crowded trade faces headwinds and risks.
2024 Will Be A Roller Coaster Ride! 🔥🔥🔥
Fund managers are extremely bullish on duration as a majority of them (62%) expect lower long-term rates as inflation falls and the world’s largest central bank turns dovish.
Nonetheless, there are several headwinds for the… pic.twitter.com/3gpKsAAjUy
— Wall Street Silver (@WallStreetSilv) December 20, 2023
JUST IN: Fear & Greed Index hits 80, Extreme Greed, for the first time since July 27th.
July 27th also happens to be the day when the S&P 500 topped and fell ~6% in 3 weeks.
However, the decline was driven by a more hawkish than expected Fed outcome.
Now, the rally is being… pic.twitter.com/pJqbfshsH4
— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) December 20, 2023
Can we trust the Pivot Party? My sense is that the Fed may have to eat its words at some point in 2024 and walk back from its pivot.
Even if the Fed sticks the landing, a premature pivot might reignite animal spirits enough (via a loosening of financial conditions) to prevent… pic.twitter.com/pcVk5X5awD
— Jurrien Timmer (@TimmerFidelity) December 20, 2023
Something breaks >
Black Swan >
Default failure chain >
GFC 2.0 >
BRICS+ figures out replacement system for USD >
USD starts breaking >
WWIII— 🌱Future🌱Economics🌱 (@TySmoothie) December 20, 2023
Rate cuts coming in 2024
– Jerome Powell pic.twitter.com/RvWax6cWdw— Wall Street Silver (@WallStreetSilv) December 20, 2023
BREAKING: 40% of all student loan holders failed to make payments when they resumed in October.
This means that 8.8 million out of 22 million borrowers missed student loan payments.
Currently, we have a record $1.6 trillion of outstanding student loans.
The average payment is…
— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) December 19, 2023
"Over time, tighter standards as measured by the Federal Reserve’s quarterly survey of senior lending officers have strongly correlated with rising credit spreads. That hasn’t happened in 2023."@johnauthers pic.twitter.com/uMZiuGNlFz
— Daily Chartbook (@dailychartbook) December 20, 2023
Market Momentum Falters: Dow’s 10-Day Streak at Risk Amid Economic Uncertainty
U.S. stocks, including the Dow Jones Industrial Average, faced a downturn, potentially ending a 10-day winning streak, influenced by a mix of economic data and market dynamics. The recent rally, driven by hopes of a dovish Federal Reserve and lower inflation, hit a pause as investors weighed future economic slowdown and consumer spending trends. Key economic indicators, such as existing-home sales and the consumer-confidence index, showed mixed signals, while company-specific news like FedEx’s lowered forecast and Tesla’s compensation changes also impacted market sentiment. The market’s future direction hinges on upcoming economic reports, including revised GDP figures and the Fed’s inflation report.